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We run a worldwide programme of insightful conferences, roundtables, webinars and podcasts presented by our economic experts.

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Webinar
2023年の世界経済：軽微な景気後退と金融引締め長期化リスク

with Shigeto Nagai | Online | December 21, 2022

当社は主要国について浅く短い景気後退局面入りとそれに続く冴えない回復を予測しています。こうしたコンセンサス対比弱めの見通しに対する大きなリスクは、インフレは低下傾向を辿る下でも米国FEDによる引締めが市場の想定より長期化することです。世界的な住宅市場の調整やドル高長期化など様々なルートで影響が拡がります。加えて、欧州におけるガス需給の見通しや中国のゼロ・コロナ政策転換の展開などのリスクに関する分析もご紹介します。

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Podcast
Canada Economic Podcast – December 2022

with Tony Stillo and Cassidy Rheaume | Online | December 21, 2022

Tony Stillo, Director of Economics for Canada, and fellow Associate Economist, Cassidy Rheaume discuss the unique factors that will shape Canada’s looming recession. Stronger-than-expected headline GDP growth in Q3 masks underlying weakness and we still believe that the economy is in the early stages of recession. No two recessions are alike. Unique pandemic and geopolitical factors will shape Canada's upcoming economic downturn.

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Webinar
UK 2023 Themes: Recession ahead but policy pivot unlikely

with Andrew Goodwin and Edward Allenby | Online | December 20, 2022

We expect the UK economy to be in recession for most of 2023, with activity dragged down by falling real household income and tight policy settings. Given the underlying conditions that drove tight policy settings have not gone away, it looks unlikely that policymakers will pivot towards providing more support unless the downturn is much deeper than we anticipate.

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Webinar
Commodities 2023 key themes: Political uncertainty to keep markets volatile

with Kiran Ahmed, Stephen Hare, Toby Whittington and Diego Cacciapuoti | Online | December 16, 2022

Uncertainties around both supply and demand, driven to a large extent by politics rather than economics have been a key feature of commodity markets this year – sanctions on Russia, Moscow’s response and China’s Covid policy, to name but a few. At the same time, central banks are ratcheting up interest rates, depressing demand. We explore the outlook for commodity prices amid this high level of uncertainty and discuss the risks to our baseline.

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Webinar
Key Global Trends for 2023

with Ben May | Online | December 15, 2022

We expect vast swathes of the advanced economies to fall into recession in 2023 and for global growth to be weaker than the consensus expectation. Beyond this, we think that three broad themes which will dominate next year from an economic and financial market perspective: 1. Supply shocks will ease but won't fade completely. 2. Inflation will fall sharply but a fast central bank pivot is less likely. 3. Recessions will be mild but subsequent recoveries disappointing.

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Webinar
A global industrial recession – led by Europe

with Jeremy Leonard and Nico Palesch | Online | December 14, 2022

The Global Industry Team will present the results of its quarterly forecast update, which will provide an overview and the highlights of updated projections for industries in all 77 countries covered by the Global Industry Service. Key topics include the trajectory and drivers of global and national industrial production during the economic weakness expected in Q4 2022 and H1 2023, the sectors most impacted, and the prospects for recovery in the short-, medium-, and long-run.

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Webinar
Finding solutions to the environmental emergency: where politics meets economics

with James Lambert, Jake Kuyer and Caroline Franklin | Online | December 13, 2022

The health of the planet has been at the top of the global political and business agenda in recent weeks with COP27 last month and the parallel COP15 on biodiversity. In the past year, extreme weather events including, hurricanes and wildfires have had a devastating impact on the lives of millions of people around the world. Governments, companies, and investors are aware of the risks of global warming but COP-27 climate summit served as a reminder of how complex it is for stakeholders to agree on a solution, and on their role within it.

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Webinar
Japan Key themes 2023: BoJ finally out of woods?

with Shigeto Nagai | Online | December 13, 2022

Will global inflation finally end the long-term deflationary trend in Japan? Would this enable the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to start adjusting its Yield Curve Control policy in 2023? In this webinar we will answer these questions by examining four interrelated themes. Are firms regaining pricing power? Is a price-wage spiral about to start? What is the yen forecast in 2023? Will the new BoJ governor make a difference?

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Webinar
Will Travel Prevail through Economic Weakness in 2023?

with Dave Goodger and Adam Sacks | Online | December 12, 2022

Travel rebounded in 2022, fuelled by pent-up demand and excess savings. However, travel volumes remain below pre-pandemic peaks and household spending power is coming under immense pressure from rising costs. In this session we will explore the critical themes of our 2023 travel outlook, including the likelihood of a global economic recession and why travellers may be uniquely positioned to prevail through it.

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Webinar
EMs’ year ahead – time to pick up a few gems as the steam roller passes by

with Gabriel Sterne and Lucila Bonilla | Online | December 8, 2022

In our annual outlook for global emerging markets, we will highlight those EMs most vulnerable to weak global demand and a strong dollar in 2023. Better news is that tail risks associated with very high import prices will fade; and we will show which economies and markets stand to benefit most from falling inflation, ahead-of-the-curve policies and any resumption in capital inflows. Finally, we will assess implications of global policy impotence to deal with this wave of sovereign distress.

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Webinar
Strategy Themes and Trade Ideas for 2023

with Javier Corominas, Daniel Grosvenor and Regis Chatellier | Online | December 7, 2022

2022 has proved to be an eye-watering year, laden with geo-political tensions, a global equity bear market, the fastest pace of policy tightening for a generation and with question marks raised over traditional asset allocation approaches, especially 60/40. We expect 2023 to bring challenges and increased opportunities for investors as recession sets in and economic performance varies across markets, geographies and thus asset classes.

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Webinar
Air travel recovery – the sky’s the limit

with Dave Goodger, Stephen Rooney and Andrew Matters | Online | December 7, 2022

Air travel has continued to grow throughout 2022 as recovery from the pandemic has continued, including improvement in both domestic and international air travel. Growth to date has been largely fuelled by pent-up demand and accumulated savings but fundamental drivers of demand and affordability will become more important. In this session we will explore the growth outlook, opportunities and potential headwinds.

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Webinar
Eurozone 2023 themes: A race against time before next winter

with Angel Talavera and Daniel Kral | Online | December 6, 2022

The energy crisis will continue to dominate the European macro outlook next year. Following a recession at the start of the year, we expect a gradual recovery once the energy emergency eases, as a decline in inflation should allow household real incomes recover. But lower gas supplies will be a key risk to the outlook if Europe fails to secure enough energy or adjust its demand ahead of next winter.

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Webinar
Africa Watchlist 2023

with Jee-A van der Linde | Online | December 6, 2022

Africa’s economic resilience will be tested in 2023 as the west and east battle it out for the fastest-growing region. What are the factors that might precipitate recessions in the continent’s largest economies, and where could the next debt restructuring take place? A flare-up in tensions may lead to conflict between the DRC and Rwanda, jeopardising economic integration within the East African Community. Zimbabwe heads to the polls next year – will we see meaningful change this time? In this webinar we will take a closer look at these key themes for Africa in 2023.

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Webinar
All bets are off: what next for South Africa’s Ramaphosa?

with Jee-A van der Linde and Louw Nel | Online | December 6, 2022

President Cyril Ramaphosa is considering his options after an independent judicial panel – considering the merits of an impeachment inquiry – found he had a case to answer. Calls for him to resign are multiplying but, with the ANC elective conference only weeks away, he knows resigning now would likely mean the end of the road. What comes next and what are his options? We try to make sense of it all.

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Webinar
Cruise operations resume amid heightened competition

with Dave Goodger and Christian Savelli | Online | December 5, 2022

Fully restored cruise schedules are planned for 2023 following a return to cruising in 2022 and signs of resurgent demand for this form of travel.  However, new ship construction means that there have been significant increases in capacity and cruise lines need to make important deployment decisions, with implications for port performance and also for pricing. We will share insights from our new Cruise-IP service to show the latest trends and forecast as well as illustrating the capacity, deployment and pricing challenges and how this services can support decision making.

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Webinar
Raw materials, wages, and the US construction outlook

with Abby Samp, Barbara Denham and Stephen Hare | Online | December 5, 2022

Rising commodity prices, wages, and interest rates are all expected to weigh on the US construction outlook through the course of 2023. Join Stephen Hare, Barbara Denham, and Abby Samp as they discuss these factors impacting US construction, including a look at the sub-national outlook.

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Webinar
The future of the valve and actuator market

with Alexandra Hermann and Jeremy Leonard | Online | December 2, 2022

With the world economy facing a potential recession, doubts are mounting over the outlook for the industrial sector. What does this backdrop mean for valve and actuator consumption, this year, next year, and over the medium term? Which markets have the largest growth potential? Our annual Global Valve and Actuator Market Outlook, produced in partnership with the British Valve and Actuator Association, answers these questions.

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Webinar
The Unbearable Uncertainty of Chinese Outbound Travel

with Dave Goodger and Michael Shoory | Online | December 1, 2022

With China having been largely closed for almost three years, due to travel restrictions as part of the Government's 'zero-covid' policy, global tourism destinations eagerly await the resumption of visits from China. Having been the largest global source market for tourism spending before the pandemic, the resumption of Chinese outbound travel is crucial for the industry's recovery. This webinar will discuss current expectations and uncertainty around the timing for Chinese outbound travel recovering, and what it means for recovery of tourism for many destinations.

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