Key Themes 2025
In our Key Themes 2025 series, we share our thoughts on the key aspects shaping the outlook for global, regional, industry and city economies, highlighting opportunities and risks that you should monitor closely as you formulate your strategies.
Global economy in 2025
Global growth is highly likely to hold steady next year, but beneath the surface the new US administration and China’s struggles are set to usher in a new, more mercantilist era for the global economy. Trade disruption, volatility in prices, and a new policy mix will determine the winners and losers in 2025.
Here are the three key themes that will shape global economy in 2025:
- US exceptionalism will come at a cost for the rest of the world
- Higher, more volatile prices become the norm as globalisation grinds to a halt
- A new and uncertain policy mix as fiscal and trade policy – not monetary – take centre stage
Global Key Themes 2025: Resilience gives way to uncertainty
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Climate and Sustainability Key Themes 2025
Can the 2020s still be the decisive decade?
Read the blogStrategy Key Themes 2025
The environment of strong US demand coupled with still ample global liquidity, should be positive for US risk assets.
Download the report Register for the webinarReal Estate Key Themes 2025
After a year of transition in the commercial real estate cycle in 2024, we think five key themes will support a brighter outlook for the year ahead.
Download the report Register for the webinarCommodity Key Themes 2025
The commodity markets are poised for significant shifts influenced by geopolitical developments, economic policies and global demand dynamics.
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We are cautious on the macro outlook for EMs and adopt a defensive stance on EM assets.
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Following prolonged weakness in 2022 and 2023, industrial growth is now regaining momentum.
Download the report Register for the webinarEurozone economy in 2025
After a long period in which the European economy has been largely shaped by massive exogenous shocks – the coronavirus pandemic, supply-chain problems, energy crisis – we’re back to an environment in which more traditional growth drivers will largely dictate the outlook.
Download our report to explore the critical questions that will determine the Eurozone economic recovery in 2025:
- What will drive the Eurozone’s economic growth in 2025?
- How will Trump’s presidency and tariffs impact the Eurozone?
- What is the Eurozone’s inflation outlook, and how will it influence the ECB’s decisions on rate cuts?
Uncover more EMEA insights
UK Key Themes 2025
Some forecasters are more optimistic about UK growth prospects following the Budget. We take the opposite view.
Download the report Register for the webinarNordics Key Themes 2025
We expect growth will pick up in 2025 in Sweden, Norway and Finland, with Denmark as the exception.
Download the report Register for the webinarAfrica Watchlist 2025
Our Watchlist 2025 unpacks the likelihood of a South African economic boom and Kenya falling off a fiscal cliff.
Download the reportUS economy in 2025
The last 15 years can be generally characterised as American exceptionalism. US per capita GDP growth was the third strongest among advanced economies in 2023 and is poised to be among the best performers in 2024. With the heighted policy uncertainty and volatility in the bond market, can the US sustain its economic edge in 2025?
Download our report to explore the five key questions shaping the US economic outlook for 2025.
- Will American exceptionalism endure?
- Is the investment boom set to continue?
- How will fiscal and monetary policy evolve?
- What are the implications of less immigration and tariffs on growth and inflation?
- Will 2025 be the year of bond market volatility?
Uncover more insights on the Americas
Canada Key Themes 2025
Slow economic growth will likely continue in Canada in 2025 as significant policy shocks threaten to reshape the landscape.
Download the reportAsia economy in 2025
While the fear of US tariffs has surged, China’s fiscal response to its ongoing slowdown is yet to arrive. Meanwhile, financial markets have already reacted, with Asian currencies depreciating and bond yields rising. Most likely, 2025 could well be a year of slower growth and more stubborn inflation than most believe.
Download our report to explore the four key questions shaping the economic outlook for Asia in 2025:
- What factors will influence Asia’s economic outlook in 2025?
- How will China navigate its economic challenges, and what impact could this have on the region?
- Is the optimism surrounding India’s economic outlook justified? Could India benefit from Trump’s China policy?
- To what extend will the rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI) benefit Taiwan, South Korea and Malaysia, and will this trend endure?
Asia Key Themes 2025: Global shocks and domestic resilience
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China Key Themes 2025
We expect China to provide additional rate cuts and adopt an expansionary fiscal policy in 2025 to generate short-term demand.
Download the report Register for the webinarJapan Key Themes 2025
We expect Japan’s economy to maintain a modest pace of growth in 2025, amid domestic challenges and growing external threats.
Download reportAustralia Key Themes 2025
Australia’s prospects are set to improve in 2025. Lower inflation will be supportive of the growth outlook, although there is still only limited scope for policy easing.
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We believe India’s growth rate has now normalised and activity will expand at a softer pace in 2025.
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