Webinar

US: A jobless expansion

3 December 2025 – 10.00am EST (New York)

online

The economy is in the midst of a jobless expansion, or at least barreling toward one.

This isn’t just a current risk, it could become the norm in the coming years. In a jobless expansion, GDP increases but employment gains are modest, at best. This leaves the economy vulnerable to adverse shocks because the labor market acts as the primary firewall against the onset of a recession. Large, sustained increases in unemployment usually trigger a vicious cycle that often culminates in a recession. A jobless expansion will contribute to the bifurcated economy in 2026, which will be another year where the health of the economy depends on who you ask.

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Speakers

Ryan Sweet

Ryan Sweet is the Global Chief Economist|Managing Director at Oxford Economics where he helps shape and coordinate the team’s global economic analysis and forecasting. Previously, Ryan was the Chief US Economist and led a team that was among the most accurate high-frequency forecasters of the economy.

Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Ryan spent 17 years at Moody’s Analytics as a member of the U.S. macroeconomics team and was also a co-host of the Inside Economics podcast. Ryan has also been an adjunct professor in the Economics and Finance Department at West Chester University of Pennsylvania.

Ryan received a master’s degree in finance from John’s Hopkins University, a master’s degree in economics from the University of Delaware, and a bachelor’s degree in economics from Washington College.

Managing Director - Macro Forecasting and Analysis

Michael Pearce

Michael Pearce is Chief US Economist at Oxford Economics, based in New York. He leads US macroeconomic research and forecasting, and his team is ranked among Bloomberg’s top forecasters for major US economic indicators. Before joining Oxford Economics, Michael was a senior economist on the US team at Capital Economics and worked at HM Treasury in the UK. He holds degrees in Economic History from the London School of Economics and in Economics from University College London, and has lived and worked in the UK and Switzerland.

Chief US Economist