Global Trade Tariffs

Explore our latest analysis on tariffs and their impact on the economy, trade, financial markets, supply chain and your business.

Global trade is undergoing a paradigm shift. The series of tariff increases enacted by the Trump Administration, and the retaliation by countries around the world have pushed the global economy back into a protectionist era. Even those economies not directly affected by tariffs will feel the second-round impacts through weaker global demand. This shift poses challenges to national, sectoral and city economies, as well as to the investment and operational strategies of most, if not all businesses.

Powered by our Global Economic Model and a team of over 400 economists and analysts, we offer timely, unbiased insights into trade and tariffs to help you navigate these turbulent times.

INSIGHTS

Trump 2.0: The First 100 Days and the Economic Fallout

UPCOMING WEBINARS:

US Economy & Policy Shifts Global Trade, Tariffs & Economic Shifts

Global economy and supply chains

The Trump Administration introduced a series of tariffs on various countries, taking the US trade policy back to Great Depression era levels of protectionism. In response, several countries have announced retaliatory measures. These actions are expected to have a profound impact on the global economy, with effects varying significantly across countries, regions and sectors due to the specific nature of the tariffs. While some agreement may be reached, we foresee 2025 experiencing the slowest annual global growth rate since the financial crisis, excluding the pandemic period.

    Read more reports

    Americas

    Dramatically higher tariffs raise the odds of a US recession. The tariffs will boost inflation, weighing on real disposable income and cutting into spending; financial market conditions will likely tighten; and trade policy will remain elevated, which is suffocating for business investment.

    In Canada and Mexico, the anticipated broad tariffs from April could lead to industrial recessions.

      Unlock more analysis

      EMEA

      The impact of the tariffs themselves as well as the effects of the heightened uncertainty on investment will drag down Eurozone GDP growth in 2025 and 2026.

      For the UK, although the higher tariffs will hit UK exports to the US, the main impact on UK growth prospects will come via weaker US and global demand and elevated trade policy uncertainty.

        Explore more Insights

        APAC

        Many of the Asian economies, heavily reliant on trade, now confront high US tariffs. Our simulation shows that Vietnam, South Korea and Taiwan appear the most vulnerable. Meanwhile, we estimate that the effective US tariff on imports from China could exceed 60%.

        Rather than taking retaliatory measures, we believe most countries will seek concessions. Although the size of the overall US trade pie is set to shrink, some countries and sectors might emerge as relative winners due to a redistribution of its trade slices.

          See all our reports

          What’s next?

          The global economy is more interconnected than ever before, yet it faces unprecedented disruption and volatility. The complications in trade and tariffs are that it extends beyond bilateral relationships, impacting other regions, sectors, supply chain and capital flows and more. Understanding these dynamics requires a truly global perspective, and that’s where Oxford Economics can assist you.

          Fill in the form below to request a trial today and uncover insights for

          200+

          Economies

          100+

          Sectors

          8,000+

          Cities and regions

          1200+

          product and commodities

          How we help

          Leveraging our Global Economic Model, which links major economies across the world via trade, capital flows, exchange rates and more, we provide the most integrated views and forecasts available. Our approach best reflects the interconnected nature of the global economy, positioning us to offer accurate, robust and impartial insights into how trade and tariff developments impact your business.

          We help you:

          • Keep up with developing trade tensions, supply chain issues, interest rate changes and FX fluctuations with our timely analysis of the macroeconomic, sector and city outlooks.
          • Get a forward-looking view of potential blockages and cost changes, and identify pockets of opportunities with our robust forecasts of demand, supply and trading corridors.
          • Anticipate potential opportunities and risks with our scenario analysis and modelling tools.
          • Strengthen your inhouse planning and analysis with access to economists-vetted datasets, concise chartbooks and interactive dashboards.
          Request a trial today

            Insights to your inbox

            Also of Interest