US Tariff Monitor – New tariff authority, same uncertainty

The White House has pivoted to a new tariff authority to impose a 10% global duty, with the possibility of a 15% rate still on the table. While the average effective tariff rate is only modestly lower than before, the shift introduces a new layer of policy uncertainty that could weigh on business decisions and the broader US outlook.

• A 10% global tariff under Section 122 results in an effective rate of 10.7%, rising to 11.9% if the levy increases to 15%.
• Uncertainty has surged, and firms remain unclear on where country- and product-specific duties will ultimately settle once the temporary global tariff expires.
• Supply chains remain in flux as businesses restock and respond to anticipated tariff changes stemming from new and ongoing trade investigations.