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United States: Macro Musings
Geopolitical events took center stage in the financial markets this week, but the period ended on an upbeat note amid signs of easing trade tensions with China.
EMs’ global backdrop: quite contagious, very unforgiving
Turkey sneezed and other EM currencies moved pretty much in line with our prior assessment of their overall FX vulnerabilities. But in our view, the great majority of EM are nevertheless in a good pos...
Global Macro Themes and asset views chartbook, August 2018
In our global macro chartbook for August, we summarise our views on current global themes and asset markets, and link to our research highlights over the last month.This month, the threat of protectio...
Argentina: Debt to remain sustainable, but financing it will be tricky
The rout in emerging markets (EMs) and subsequent further fall in Argentina’s peso have made the IMF’s baseline projection for the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio – peaking at 65% this year – look overly ...
Eurozone: No one ‘wins’ in a Trans-Atlantic trade war
The risk of a full-blown trans-Atlantic trade war remains high. Our analysis finds that Europe would come out worse than the US and that the ensuing stagflationary shock would hit domestic demand hard...
Life Insurance as a Social Catalyst
Rising US life insurance payouts boost America’s house prices and employment, cut poverty, and reduce federal spending.
Charter Communications: Delivering Economic Impact in All 50 States
Charter's investments in its people, infrastructure and operations contribute $48 billion to US GDP and supports nearly half a million jobs. Charter Communications is the second largest cable operator... more
The impact of the BAE Systems military aircraft business on the UK economy
In 2016, the BAE Systems military aircraft business sustained nearly 48,900 jobs in the UK, supported a £3.2 billion contribution to GDP and made a total tax contribution of £900 million to the Excheq... more
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In the media
Risks of a trans-Atlantic #tradewar remain high. If EU-US talks fail, we find Europe would come off worse than the US with a stagflationary shock hitting domestic demand hard. EU economy would shrink by 1.1% and up to 1.6m jobs could be lost by end-2021: bit.ly/2vZyPw1
#Turkey sneezed, refused medicine, political temperatures raged, and other #EM currencies moved largely in line with our gauges of overall #FX vulnerabilities - #Argentina, #Ukraine most vulnerable; #SAfrica, #Mexico, #Brazil and #Russia a bit behind: bit.ly/2OGw0qQ
#EM sell-off driven by #Turkey troubles stoking fears of contagion. But most EMs are more resilient than in 2008 or 2013, due to major corrections in external imbalances and banking sector deleveraging. EMs that are exposed hv mainly already seen crises: bit.ly/2nL6S6E
#EM sell-off driven by #Turkey troubles stoking fears of contagion. But most EMs are more resilient than in 2008 or 2013, due to major corrections in external imbalances and banking sector deleveraging. EMs that are exposed hv mainly already seen crises: bit.ly/2MjWYaR
RT @niconobivalgre: Bank of Italy data confirmed that Italian bonds have lost their attractiveness to foreign investors. Net foreign flows…
In #Norway, a September interest rate rise seems a certainty. The #NorgesBank held rates today as expected but strengthened expectations of a hike next month with a comment that the outlook was continuing as it anticipated: bit.ly/2OIvZTh
In the @FT, OE's Nafez Zouk says that moves by #Turkey central bank to tighten policy by forcing lenders to borrow overnight at a penalty won't halt the country's currency crisis, with more drastic measures needed: on.ft.com/2OEVZPb via @financialtimes