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LATEST GLOBAL OUTLOOK
November/ December 2018

  • Global growth will ease from 3.1% this year to 2.8% in 2019 and 2.7% in 2020. Recent equities sell-offs highlight financial market risks but we do not expect wider market declines.
  • We project 2019 US growth of 2.5%, buoyed by supportive fiscal policy, while the eurozone should see some year-end revival, paving the way for 1.7% 2019 growth, from 2% this year.
  • Broadly stable oil prices, easing inflation and resilient jobs markets support the outlook for next year.
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  • RT @GregDaco: Ahead of #Thanksgiving break, @OxfordEconomics' #GDP nowcast shows US growth at 2.1% in Q4. This compares with the @AtlantaFe…

  • In #Asia, we expect growth to ease to 4.4% next yr from expected 4.6% this yr, mainly due to US-China #tradewar. But policy easing by #China shd limit damage so Asia growth shd agn be world's fastest. We see China's growth slowing to 6% from 2019's 6.5%: bit.ly/2KogBu7

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  • RT @GregDaco: Despite a significant #stockmarket correction, consumer spending continues to grow around 2.5-3%. While broader correction…

  • RT @GregDaco: In @OxfordEconomics' latest US Economics #Podcast we discuss economic momentum heading into 2019, resilience in the labor mar…