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October/November 2018

  • We have upgraded our 2019 US growth forecast to 2.5% and now see a more gradual easing of the strong US expansion.
  • With the US stronger for longer, knock-on effects from four more expected US rate rises in 2018-19, and a stronger dollar, make us more downbeat over emerging markets.
  • Concerns such as protectionism, populism, and rising oil prices have intensified. But we see world GDP growth slowing from 3.1% this year to a still solid 2.8% in 2019.
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Latest Analysis

  • Nov 16 2018

    United States: Macro Musings

     Headline readings on retail sales and consumer prices exaggerate the strength in consumer spending and inflation. Consumption is still solid but slowing, and inflation remains tame.

  • Nov 15 2018

    Early evidence on who’s winning the trade war

    Financial market moves since February suggest the US is getting the better of China in their trade war. But is this right? Actual evidence on trade flows is only just starting to emerge and is mixed&#...

  • Nov 14 2018

    United Kingdom: Draft Brexit deal done…but that was the easy part

    News of a draft deal on the Brexit withdrawal agreement takes us a small step closer to the UK making an orderly departure from the EU in March 2019. But the Prime Minister now faces a tough job in se...

  • Nov 14 2018

    Eurozone: With QE due to end, the ECB still has some bullets left

    The end of the ECB’s asset purchase programme does not mean the central bank is out of weapons to fight a deterioration in economic conditions. Changes in forward guidance and the timing of interest r...

  • Nov 14 2018

    Oil output cuts risk putting GCC states among slow EMs

    A return to oil production cuts by OPEC and other producers in 2019 is a considerable downside risk to our baseline forecast of real GDP growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region acceleratin...

  • Africa Risk Reward Index, November 2018

    Africa Risk Reward Index, November 2018

    Experienced investors know that risk and reward are close companions. There are certain African economies that no serious investor on the continent can reasonably overlook. South Africa, Nigeria and E... more

  • The Geography of the Global Middle Class: Where they live, how they spend

    The Geography of the Global Middle Class: Where they live, how they spend

    Democratization of consumption has happened so quickly, that close to two-thirds of the world's population will join the ranks of the 'Global Middle Class' by 2030. The implications on consumer demand... more

  • Boosting Local Business in the UK

    Boosting Local Business in the UK

    SMEs report that improving Banking and Business services to SMEs could improve their productivity by 10%, delivering a £70 billion boost to the UK economy.

  • Benefits Beyond Borders

    Benefits Beyond Borders

    Oxford Economics has once again collaborated with the Air Transport Action Group (ATAG) to provide the most comprehensive estimate of the the value of the world's aviation sector. We estimate that in ... more


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  • Flagship report from @TSB, Boosting Local Business, launched this wk w/All-party Parliamentary Grp on Fair Business Banking @APPGbanking. Using OE research, it shows better small business banking cld buoy #SME productivity in a £70bn boost to #UKeconomy:

  • Early evidence on who's winning #tradewar. For #China, surveys suggest it's likely trade will suffer considerably. US imports of items like solar panels, have slumped. US shock looks smaller. Bigger near-term losers may be China’s key Asian trade partners:

  • In the #Eurozone, headline inflation in October was confirmed at 2.2%, highest in almost 6 yrs, boosted by higher energy prices - with the core rate was also up. Stronger core inflation is good news for the #ECB, which we expect to end QE in Dec'r as planned:

  • In @FTAlphaville OE's Marcos Casarin and Fernando Murillo warn over looming economic damage under new #Mexico president, Andrés Manuel López #Obrador #AMLO. Weakened currency, higher rates and rising gov't debt could cap next year's growth at 2% - or less:

  • In the FT's EM Squared @em_sqrd, OE's Louis Kuijs highlights how #Asia economies may suffer #tradewar fallout as the conflict hits domestic demand in #China for goods and services despite some gains from shifting supply chains:

  • Investment conditions in #Africa are reviving, our Africa Risk-Reward Index finds. After several years of economic turbulence, and the weakest growth since the early 90s #Sub-SaharanAfrica will see accelerating growth reaching 4.3% by 2020. Find out more:

  • RT @GregDaco: Latest #retail sales data mean Q3 #GDP tracker is down 0.1pp, but factoring strong #construction & inventories data, our esti…