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United States: An inflation target framework for the next downturn
When the next economic downturn unfolds, short-term interest rates will likely fall back to the zero lower bound – and at that time, the Federal Reserve will want to have an effective monetary policy ...
Africa and Middle East: African debt – mostly overblown fear, not righteous angst
The sustainability of Sub-Saharan Africa’s debt largely rests upon a growth model, suggesting that the fledgling growth recovery that commenced in 2017 will support a decline in the real debt burde...
Japan: Abenomics is here to stay – even if Abe may not
A series of scandals have caused Prime Minister Abe’s approval ratings to tumble, raising questions about the future of Abenomics and the likelihood of policy change in a possible Post-Abe era. While ...
Eurozone: ECB Watch – No action, but watch the rhetoric
The council meeting in April looks like an unnecessary stop on the ECB’s long road to normality. It is all but certain that no policy change is coming after last month’s communication tweaks and ahead...
Germany: Surprise baby boom is easing demographic woes
Germany is enjoying a surprise baby boom. Coupled with the surging inward migration of recent years this has transformed the country’s demographic prospects. It will ease the previously assumed labour...
- Mar 19 2018
- Feb 26 2018
The AI Paradox: How robots are making work more human
Over the next decade, a great wave of technological change will wash through the economy, transforming the nature of work and the shape of the labour market. We collaborated with Cisco to study the im... more
- Apr 24 2018
Google Data Centers: Economic Impact and Community Benefit
As of the date of this report, six data center campuses provide the technological infrastructure necessary to power Google’s operations in the United States. The data centers allow Google to provide... more
- Apr 24 2018
Forecasts and analysis for 12 key markets, providing insight into the building and construction industry throughout Asia.
A rigorous and transparent framework to measure the vulnerability of 166 countries to a sovereign crisis or a sovereign distress.
A comprehensive view of national and city economies across Africa
An unbiased and transparent view of the forward-looking distribution for the economy essential to meeting regulatory requirements.
In the media
In a new downturn, US rates will likely fall back to the zero bound. #FederalReserve will need an effective monetary policy - why it's debating a poss new inflation target. Most likely are - a target range, the existing 2% target or a price-level target: bit.ly/2KbuM5g
In a new downturn, US rates will likely fall back to the zero bound. #FederalReserve will need an effective monetary policy - why it's debating a poss new inflation target. Most likely are - a target range, the existing 2% target or a price-level target: bit.ly/2HrCtqn
Our 200 economists have updated our monthly forecasts. Our analysis suggests the global economy remains set for its best 2-yr run of growth since 2010-11, despite trade tensions and signs of some loss of momentum in Q2. Download our free executive summary: bit.ly/2JoheSM
Sustainability of #Sub-SaharanAfrica’s debt rests on a growth model and a growth recovery since 2017 supporting a decline in medium-term debt burdens. But amid sputtering growth, the debt burden is set to rise this yr despite fiscal consolidation efforts: bit.ly/2Hq4EWF
RT @GregDaco: May 1 will be important #trade date next week. Exemptions for #steel & #aluminium #tariffs will end for all countries. We wil…
RT @GregDaco: US Executive Podcast: Kathy Bostjancic and I discuss the US econ outlook with focus on Q1 & Q2 #GDP growth, #FederalReserve o…
The @WSJ highlights the recent rise in #10yearTreasuries yield, and our forecast from John Canavan in our fixed income team that yields on 10yr #USTs will climb to 3.15% by year-end: on.wsj.com/2Hr17qU