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September / October 2019

  • 2019 world growth is set to dip below 2016’s post-crisis low of 2.6% and despite much policy loosening we see no rebound, with 2020 growth stuck at 2.5%.
  • Intensified US-China trade conflict and recession fears are leading manufacturing-centred weakness to spread as business confidence is hit. Weaker hiring by firms may yet hit still-robust consumer spending, though we assume policy moves will stave-off consumer panic and a deeper slowdown.
  • We do not forecast global recession, but caution against complacency over the risks. Fiscal policy action − and some luck − may be needed to put a floor under global growth.
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  • Our 250 economists have updated our monthly forecasts - download a FREE
    SUMMARY: 2019 world growth is set to dip below 2016’s post-crisis low of 2.6% and despite much policy loosening we see no rebound, with 2020 growth stuck at 2.5%.

  • Trend growth in #China will ease to 4% by 2020 amid more reform but less favourable external conditions. By 2040 growth cld be 2.8%. 2040 China GDP wld outstrip US GDP by 51% (in market exchange rates). But a breach with the West cld mean weaker results:

  • AR promises to make all the world a stage for immersive experiences. Check out our latest study to see how AR adopters are already capitalizing on AR’s ability to deliver improved business outcomes #AR #RealReality #Augmented #AI

  • Amid #tradewar, with businesses more reluctant to invest, construction activity in #Asia is at risk of becoming collateral damage. In our latest Asia Construction Service report we map key trends, winners and losers for Asia #construction and #realestate:

  • Fears that the #globaleconomy is heading into a #recession are rising. But while we cannot ignore the risks that may be brewing, our baseline view is still to expect a modest slowdown in world growth from here. Find out why:

  • #Eurozone #exports have been resilient despite the #tradewar growing by 3.7% y/y in H1. But with global #trade stagnating and US-China tensions flaring up we now see EZ export growth falling to o 2.2% in 2019 and a decade-low of 1.5% in 2020:

  • With #Argentina failing to repay short-term debt, it's now dependent on the #IMF for funding and a positive signal on its finances to mitigate capital flight. The Fund is likely to end up negotiating a new programme with Buenos Aires with little leverage: