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LATEST GLOBAL OUTLOOK
September / October 2019

  • 2019 world growth is set to dip below 2016’s post-crisis low of 2.6% and despite much policy loosening we see no rebound, with 2020 growth stuck at 2.5%.
  • Intensified US-China trade conflict and recession fears are leading manufacturing-centred weakness to spread as business confidence is hit. Weaker hiring by firms may yet hit still-robust consumer spending, though we assume policy moves will stave-off consumer panic and a deeper slowdown.
  • We do not forecast global recession, but caution against complacency over the risks. Fiscal policy action − and some luck − may be needed to put a floor under global growth.
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  • Fears that the #globaleconomy is heading into a #recession are rising. But while we cannot ignore the risks that may be brewing, our baseline view is still to expect a modest slowdown in world growth from here. Find out why: bit.ly/31qlgDr

  • Travel to the US from #China is under pressure from the #tradewar. If the trade conflict continues we estimate there could be a loss of 1.9 inbound Chinese visitors and $11bn in visitor spending from China over 2018-2020: bit.ly/30nuvTQ

  • Our 250 economists have updated our monthly forecasts - download a FREE
    SUMMARY: bit.ly/31xmRaY. 2019 world growth is set to dip below 2016’s post-crisis low of 2.6% and despite much policy loosening we see no rebound, with 2020 growth stuck at 2.5%.

  • Amid #tradewar, with businesses more reluctant to invest, construction activity in #Asia is at risk of becoming collateral damage. In our latest Asia Construction Service report we map key trends, winners and losers for Asia #construction and #realestate: bit.ly/2ZVBt6k

  • The appointment of Italy's former premier and foreign minister Paolo Gentiloni as the new EU economic affairs commissioner is unlikely to mean that Brussels gives Rome much greater leeway to stretch EU budget rules, OE's Nicole Nobile tells the @Telegraph: bit.ly/2ZQ5xkq

  • Bloomberg highlights analysis by OE's Gaurav Saroliya that a looming liquidity squeeze in US money markets may put the lid on the recent sell-off in Treasuries, overwhelming bullish sentiment from central bank stimulus and easing trade tensions: bloom.bg/30bVCB1

  • AR promises to make all the world a stage for immersive experiences. Check out our latest study bit.ly/2Q1ltvD to see how AR adopters are already capitalizing on AR’s ability to deliver improved business outcomes #AR #RealReality #Augmented #AI