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LATEST GLOBAL OUTLOOK
April 2018

  • We forecast buoyant world GDP growth of 3.2% this year and 3% growth in 2019, the best two-year run since 2010/11.
  • Simmering trade tensions pose downside risks highlighted by signs that global expansion may lose some momentum in Q2.
  • For now, we see trade skirmishes’ impact as mild and expect further solid global growth, bolstered by a marked pick-up in China in early 2018.
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  • In a new downturn, US rates will likely fall back to the zero bound. #FederalReserve will need an effective monetary policy - why it's debating a poss new inflation target. Most likely are - a target range, the existing 2% target or a price-level target: bit.ly/2KbuM5g

  • In a new downturn, US rates will likely fall back to the zero bound. #FederalReserve will need an effective monetary policy - why it's debating a poss new inflation target. Most likely are - a target range, the existing 2% target or a price-level target: bit.ly/2HrCtqn

  • Our 200 economists have updated our monthly forecasts. Our analysis suggests the global economy remains set for its best 2-yr run of growth since 2010-11, despite trade tensions and signs of some loss of momentum in Q2. Download our free executive summary: bit.ly/2JoheSM

  • Sustainability of #Sub-SaharanAfrica’s debt rests on a growth model and a growth recovery since 2017 supporting a decline in medium-term debt burdens. But amid sputtering growth, the debt burden is set to rise this yr despite fiscal consolidation efforts: bit.ly/2Hq4EWF

  • RT @GregDaco: May 1 will be important #trade date next week. Exemptions for #steel & #aluminium #tariffs will end for all countries. We wil…

  • RT @GregDaco: US Executive Podcast: Kathy Bostjancic and I discuss the US econ outlook with focus on Q1 & Q2 #GDP growth, #FederalReserve o…

  • The @WSJ highlights the recent rise in #10yearTreasuries yield, and our forecast from John Canavan in our fixed income team that yields on 10yr #USTs will climb to 3.15% by year-end: on.wsj.com/2Hr17qU