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LATEST GLOBAL OUTLOOK
October/November 2018

  • We have upgraded our 2019 US growth forecast to 2.5% and now see a more gradual easing of the strong US expansion.
  • With the US stronger for longer, knock-on effects from four more expected US rate rises in 2018-19, and a stronger dollar, make us more downbeat over emerging markets.
  • Concerns such as protectionism, populism, and rising oil prices have intensified. But we see world GDP growth slowing from 3.1% this year to a still solid 2.8% in 2019.
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  • RT @GregDaco: #Fed Chair Powell: no economic concerns are strong enough to change current gradual tightening path but monitoring:

    • global…
  • Draft #Brexit withdrawal deal a small step closer to orderly EU departure. But PM faces a battle to win parliamentary approval. Good chance coming months will see political upheaval and market volatility, and a disorderly Brexit still cannot be ruled out: bit.ly/2TdMIRd

  • Flagship report from @TSB, Boosting Local Business, launched today w/ All-party Parliamentary Grp on Fair Business Banking @APPGbanking. Using OE research, it shows better small business banking cld buoy #SME productivity in a £70bn boost to #UKeconomy: bit.ly/2TcmSNF

  • RT @GregDaco: US #CPI rises 0.3% in Oct as expected while core CPI +0.2%. Energy, driven by 3.0% jump in #gasoline prices, represented 1/3…

  • RT @OliverRakau: German Q3 GDP with first fall since Q1 2015 & at -0.2% q/q inline with my expectations. Accounting for the dreadful perfor…

  • RT @GregDaco: Despite frightening October for #markets, US #recession odds remain tame. @OxfordEconomics activity-augmented recession index…

  • In @sole24ore, @vittoriodarold highlights OE's analysis by Adam Slater concluding that speculation over the future of the #USdollar as global reserve currency is wide of the mark, with the #USD's pre-eminence likely to endure: bit.ly/2K1pSZ1 via @sole24ore to come: