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November/ December 2018

  • Global growth will ease from 3.1% this year to 2.8% in 2019 and 2.7% in 2020. Recent equities sell-offs highlight financial market risks but we do not expect wider market declines.
  • We project 2019 US growth of 2.5%, buoyed by supportive fiscal policy, while the eurozone should see some year-end revival, paving the way for 1.7% 2019 growth, from 2% this year.
  • Broadly stable oil prices, easing inflation and resilient jobs markets support the outlook for next year.
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  • In #France, measures by Pres #Macron to support households and soothe #giletsjaunes will lift 2019's fiscal deficit to 3.4% of GDP. It will boost growth but Brussels will struggle to explain playing hardball with Rome but accepting French fiscal slippage:

  • In #India, Shashikanta Das’ appointment as new central bank governor is set to keep markets worried over the independence of the #RBI, given his close ties with government. We expect more dovish leanings and see a window for a rate cut in H1, 2019:

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