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October/November 2018

  • We have upgraded our 2019 US growth forecast to 2.5% and now see a more gradual easing of the strong US expansion.
  • With the US stronger for longer, knock-on effects from four more expected US rate rises in 2018-19, and a stronger dollar, make us more downbeat over emerging markets.
  • Concerns such as protectionism, populism, and rising oil prices have intensified. But we see world GDP growth slowing from 3.1% this year to a still solid 2.8% in 2019.
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  • Our 'No-deal' Brexit analysis is also highlighted in the @Telegraph by columnist @FraserNelson :…

  • Ahead of US #mid-terms, and with the president have imposed new #tariffs on $200bn of Chinese imports, a US-China #tradewar will cause significant economic damage in US states that supported #Trump in 2016. 8-of-10 hardest-hit states were pro-Trump:

  • The @WSJ and @greg_ip highlight our analysis of a 'no-deal' Brexit which concludes this would cut UK GDP by 2.1% at end-2020 relative to what would otherwise be the case, and 2.7% by 2023 - on top of the lost output already foregone: via @WSJ

  • In #Italy, disappointing recent business cycle and industrial data mean we have cut our 2018 growth forecast to 1.1% and see growth of just 0.9% in 2019. We think expansionary fiscal policy will be negated by the negative effects of higher interest rates:

  • We find markets shrugging off #tradewar fears - even given last week’s sell-off. Analysis of 70 trade war news events over 2yrs finds: declining impact of negative news, rapid reversals of losses, and a stark contrast US and Chinese markets' reaction:

  • News of the iconic US retailer #Sears filing for bankruptcy protection again underlines to growing role of #e-commerce in US retailing, as we analysed here , and as highlighted in the @WSJ:

  • In the #Gulf, #tourism will be big driver of non-oil growth as the bloc tries to diversify from #oil. But the sector will still be a relatively small part of the #GCC economy at 3.8% of GDP by 2027, despite projected annual 7% growth in the next decade: