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LATEST GLOBAL OUTLOOK
August/September 2018

  • Mounting trade tensions and dearer oil may worsen an ongoing global slowdown. Eurozone activity is faltering and risks cloud emerging market prospects.
  • But we do not expect a sharp loss of momentum and still see only moderate deceleration in global growth.
  • We maintain our world growth forecasts at 3.1% this year and 2.9% for 2019, supported by US fiscal stimulus and still relatively healthy Chinese domestic demand.
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  • Risks of a trans-Atlantic #tradewar remain high. If EU-US talks fail, we find Europe would come off worse than the US with a stagflationary shock hitting domestic demand hard. EU economy would shrink by 1.1% and up to 1.6m jobs could be lost by end-2021: bit.ly/2vZyPw1

  • #Turkey sneezed, refused medicine, political temperatures raged, and other #EM currencies moved largely in line with our gauges of overall #FX vulnerabilities - #Argentina, #Ukraine most vulnerable; #SAfrica, #Mexico, #Brazil and #Russia a bit behind: bit.ly/2OGw0qQ

  • #EM sell-off driven by #Turkey troubles stoking fears of contagion. But most EMs are more resilient than in 2008 or 2013, due to major corrections in external imbalances and banking sector deleveraging. EMs that are exposed hv mainly already seen crises: bit.ly/2nL6S6E

  • #EM sell-off driven by #Turkey troubles stoking fears of contagion. But most EMs are more resilient than in 2008 or 2013, due to major corrections in external imbalances and banking sector deleveraging. EMs that are exposed hv mainly already seen crises: bit.ly/2MjWYaR

  • RT @niconobivalgre: Bank of Italy data confirmed that Italian bonds have lost their attractiveness to foreign investors. Net foreign flows…

  • In #Norway, a September interest rate rise seems a certainty. The #NorgesBank held rates today as expected but strengthened expectations of a hike next month with a comment that the outlook was continuing as it anticipated: bit.ly/2OIvZTh

  • In the @FT, OE's Nafez Zouk says that moves by #Turkey central bank to tighten policy by forcing lenders to borrow overnight at a penalty won't halt the country's currency crisis, with more drastic measures needed: on.ft.com/2OEVZPb via @financialtimes