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Impact of US trade action on China to be manageable
We expect the US to soon roll out further trade restrictions specifically targeting China, as well as restrictions on Chinese investment in the US. The large share of China’s exports to the US that i...
Japan: Lifetime employment drag on wages and inflation
Despite a serious shortage of labour, the upcoming wage negotiations will likely produce another meagre increase in base pay for regular workers. Although we won’t know the final outcome until the sum...
Chile: Q4 GDP outpaces forecast, prompting 2018 upgrade
Chile’s GDP grew by 0.6% across the fourth quarter of 2017, ahead of our expectation of 0.5%, which was also the consensus estimate. Annual growth pushed up to a robust 3.3% in Q4 (from 2.9%), but due...
Brazil: The slowdown in January is not yet reason to worry
The 0.6% m/m contraction in the IBC-Br monthly GDP proxy was expected and reflected a sharp dip in manufacturing, which was partly offset by the resilience in retail trade. Underlying growth is still ...
Colombia: A good fiscal outlook, but lower resilience to shocks
Colombia’s next government will likely miss its fiscal targets this year and next, but absent any negative shocks it will be possible to hit its five-year goal with a fiscal package only half the siz...
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- Mar 12 2018
- Feb 26 2018
- Feb 26 2018
The AI Paradox: How robots are making work more human
Over the next decade, a great wave of technological change will wash through the economy, transforming the nature of work and the shape of the labour market. We collaborated with Cisco to study the im... more
Forecasts and analysis for 12 key markets, providing insight into the building and construction industry throughout Asia.
A rigorous and transparent framework to measure the vulnerability of 166 countries to a sovereign crisis or a sovereign distress.
A comprehensive view of national and city economies across Africa
An unbiased and transparent view of the forward-looking distribution for the economy essential to meeting regulatory requirements.
In the media
Our 200 economists have updated our monthly forecasts. Our analysis suggests that the global economy remains set for its best 2-yr run of growth since 2010-11, despite the equity market upset and US protectionist moves. Download our free executive summary: https://t.co/fuR9iUpnaq https://t.co/H3hNZwCQbe
In our view, the latest #UK economic forecasts from the #OfficeforBudgetResponsibility look unduly gloomy. OE's Andrew Goodwin talks to @financialtimes about the fiscal watchdog's latest projections, which were presented alongside the UK #SpringStatement https://t.co/EaDayu3z7o https://t.co/v8CGTzz1hS
We think the US budget deficit will rise to ~4.5% of GDP by end-2020, leading the US current account deficit to swell further, too. In the past, such twin deficits contributed to global financial instability. But we see little risk in the current context: https://t.co/UCVNDyO9jB https://t.co/jujjMofONP
Looking at different economies’ exposure to fixed- and floating-rate private sector #debt reveals vulnerabilities to rising interest rates. #Hong Kong, #Sweden, #China and #Australia potentially most exposed via floating rates to rising debt service costs: https://t.co/cF1QCn5gK8 https://t.co/6rvnx6TXB7
A new trend in #Asia #exports as higher wages in #China lead #manufacturing to shift to the rest of the region - a trend we expect to continue. #Vietnam exports are powering ahead while #Japan, #SouthKorea and #Taiwan have expanded export market share: https://t.co/DpCok2732v https://t.co/3QDaPQYI2Z