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LATEST GLOBAL OUTLOOK
November/ December 2018

  • Global growth will ease from 3.1% this year to 2.8% in 2019 and 2.7% in 2020. Recent equities sell-offs highlight financial market risks but we do not expect wider market declines.
  • We project 2019 US growth of 2.5%, buoyed by supportive fiscal policy, while the eurozone should see some year-end revival, paving the way for 1.7% 2019 growth, from 2% this year.
  • Broadly stable oil prices, easing inflation and resilient jobs markets support the outlook for next year.
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  • 2018 is a landmark year for the data economy, marked by a dramatic increase in consumer awareness of the power, scope, and risks of corporate data, and sweeping regulatory change. Our report with NTT DATA examines what to expect in a future shaped by data: bit.ly/2EspH8X

  • An inverted #yieldcurve shouldn't be dismissed. But the so far mild inversion in the US curve is confined to the 5yr-2yr spread, while the key 10yr-2yr spread remains +tve, so we haven't change our 25% est'd odds on #globalrecession in the next few years: bit.ly/2GaUOHO

  • In 2019, the key theme for #USeconomy will be the search for a "soft-landing". Headwinds from higher input and borrowing costs, #protectionism and slowing global expansion will bring US growth down to 2% by end-2019. Our top calls for the new year: bit.ly/2GcaIBL

  • In #France, measures by Pres #Macron to support households and soothe #giletsjaunes will lift 2019's fiscal deficit to 3.4% of GDP. It will boost growth but Brussels will struggle to explain playing hardball with Rome but accepting French fiscal slippage: bit.ly/2EiSYlB

  • In #India, Shashikanta Das’ appointment as new central bank governor is set to keep markets worried over the independence of the #RBI, given his close ties with government. We expect more dovish leanings and see a window for a rate cut in H1, 2019: bit.ly/2EhVIju

  • Record US #corporatedebt has sparked fears over financial health of corporate America. But despite higher rates, worse debt quality we don't see imminent crisis. Non-financial US corps remain on a firm footing, while benefiting from good economic momentum: bit.ly/2rxxDNP

  • Business Insider highlights our Global Cities report which features a league table of urban power - ranking the world’s city economies. GDP of Asia's #cities to outstrip urban economies of Europe and N. America by 2035: bit.ly/2EhSI6p