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- Oct 19 2018
United States: Macro Musings
Another roller-coaster ride in stock prices highlighted financial market activity this week. The “wall of worry” is getting steeper.
- Oct 18 2018
United States: EMI Update: Momentum solid heading into Q4
Our Economic Momentum Indicator points to real GDP growth just above 3% in Q3, according to our preferred hard data growth proxy. The latest month’s data shows momentum cooling moderately below that m...
- Oct 18 2018
United States: As markets adjust to Fed normalization, inflation is key
As the Federal Reserve moves much closer to normalized monetary policy, officials return to the more traditional set of challenges that face central banks. Asset prices will also adjust to the normal ...
- Oct 18 2018
Market sell-off not down to trade war fears
The perception that markets have been increasingly shrugging off trade war fears is well founded, even against the backdrop of last week’s sell-off. Based on our analysis of 70 trade war news events o...
- Oct 18 2018
United Kingdom: An extended Brexit transition would be no free lunch
The latest twist in the Brexit saga is the possibility that the transition period following the UK’s formal departure from the EU next March might be extended by a year beyond the currently proposed D...
The impact of independent schools on the UK economy
Independent schools support £13.7 billion of UK GDP annually, associated with over 300,000 jobs and £4.1 billion of yearly tax revenues. They help the exchequer further by providing an alternative to ... more
Tracking the Power of Rail Supply: The Economic Impact of Railway Suppliers in the U.S.
The rail supply industry has been a dynamic and vital part of the U.S. economy for over 200 years--spurring value in excess of $74 billion in 2017 alone and supporting more than 650,000 jobs.
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In the media
Our 'No-deal' Brexit analysis is also highlighted in the @Telegraph by columnist @FraserNelson : telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
Ahead of US #mid-terms, and with the president have imposed new #tariffs on $200bn of Chinese imports, a US-China #tradewar will cause significant economic damage in US states that supported #Trump in 2016. 8-of-10 hardest-hit states were pro-Trump: bit.ly/2yPahqb
The @WSJ and @greg_ip highlight our analysis of a 'no-deal' Brexit which concludes this would cut UK GDP by 2.1% at end-2020 relative to what would otherwise be the case, and 2.7% by 2023 - on top of the lost output already foregone: on.wsj.com/2yodihF via @WSJ
In #Italy, disappointing recent business cycle and industrial data mean we have cut our 2018 growth forecast to 1.1% and see growth of just 0.9% in 2019. We think expansionary fiscal policy will be negated by the negative effects of higher interest rates: bit.ly/2J7cMZO
We find markets shrugging off #tradewar fears - even given last week’s sell-off. Analysis of 70 trade war news events over 2yrs finds: declining impact of negative news, rapid reversals of losses, and a stark contrast US and Chinese markets' reaction: bit.ly/2yNh0Rn
In the #Gulf, #tourism will be big driver of non-oil growth as the bloc tries to diversify from #oil. But the sector will still be a relatively small part of the #GCC economy at 3.8% of GDP by 2027, despite projected annual 7% growth in the next decade: bit.ly/2QWC7bw