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- Nov 16 2018
United States: Macro Musings
Headline readings on retail sales and consumer prices exaggerate the strength in consumer spending and inflation. Consumption is still solid but slowing, and inflation remains tame.
- Nov 15 2018
Early evidence on who’s winning the trade war
Financial market moves since February suggest the US is getting the better of China in their trade war. But is this right? Actual evidence on trade flows is only just starting to emerge and is mixed&#...
- Nov 14 2018
United Kingdom: Draft Brexit deal done…but that was the easy part
News of a draft deal on the Brexit withdrawal agreement takes us a small step closer to the UK making an orderly departure from the EU in March 2019. But the Prime Minister now faces a tough job in se...
- Nov 14 2018
Eurozone: With QE due to end, the ECB still has some bullets left
The end of the ECB’s asset purchase programme does not mean the central bank is out of weapons to fight a deterioration in economic conditions. Changes in forward guidance and the timing of interest r...
- Nov 14 2018
Oil output cuts risk putting GCC states among slow EMs
A return to oil production cuts by OPEC and other producers in 2019 is a considerable downside risk to our baseline forecast of real GDP growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region acceleratin...
The Geography of the Global Middle Class: Where they live, how they spend
Democratization of consumption has happened so quickly, that close to two-thirds of the world's population will join the ranks of the 'Global Middle Class' by 2030. The implications on consumer demand... more
Boosting Local Business in the UK
SMEs report that improving Banking and Business services to SMEs could improve their productivity by 10%, delivering a £70 billion boost to the UK economy.
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In the media
Flagship report from @TSB, Boosting Local Business, launched this wk w/All-party Parliamentary Grp on Fair Business Banking @APPGbanking. Using OE research, it shows better small business banking cld buoy #SME productivity in a £70bn boost to #UKeconomy: bit.ly/2FA8snw
Early evidence on who's winning #tradewar. For #China, surveys suggest it's likely trade will suffer considerably. US imports of items like solar panels, have slumped. US shock looks smaller. Bigger near-term losers may be China’s key Asian trade partners: bit.ly/2RVVIZW
In the #Eurozone, headline inflation in October was confirmed at 2.2%, highest in almost 6 yrs, boosted by higher energy prices - with the core rate was also up. Stronger core inflation is good news for the #ECB, which we expect to end QE in Dec'r as planned:
In @FTAlphaville OE's Marcos Casarin and Fernando Murillo warn over looming economic damage under new #Mexico president, Andrés Manuel López #Obrador #AMLO. Weakened currency, higher rates and rising gov't debt could cap next year's growth at 2% - or less: bit.ly/2RRZUK0
In the FT's EM Squared @em_sqrd, OE's Louis Kuijs highlights how #Asia economies may suffer #tradewar fallout as the conflict hits domestic demand in #China for goods and services despite some gains from shifting supply chains: bit.ly/2DpZnLB
Investment conditions in #Africa are reviving, our Africa Risk-Reward Index finds. After several years of economic turbulence, and the weakest growth since the early 90s #Sub-SaharanAfrica will see accelerating growth reaching 4.3% by 2020. Find out more: bit.ly/2PW3Qwj
RT @GregDaco: Latest #retail sales data mean Q3 #GDP tracker is down 0.1pp, but factoring strong #construction & inventories data, our esti…