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LATEST GLOBAL OUTLOOK
March / April 2020

  • The coronavirus pandemic will inflict a deep recession on the world economy, and many major national economies, during the first half of 2020.
  • Over the full year, we now expect global growth to drop to zero, the second weakest in 50 years aside from 2009. In Q1 2020, we expect the global economy to shrink at a faster pace than in the financial crisis, with a 2% fall in world GDP on the quarter, and a further 0.4% Q2 decline.
  • The near-term outlook is extremely challenging. But we believe that – consistent with historical experience – the eventual resurgence will be strong, with annual growth next year rising as high as 5% in early 2021 and averaging 4.4% for the year.
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CORONAVIRUS - LATEST UPDATES AND ANALYSIS: The economic cost of coronavirus lockdowns...

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Latest Analysis

  • Mar 31 2020

    Coronavirus turning point may come in weeks, not months

    The rapid spread of the coronavirus and escalating lockdowns suggest that activity will contract sharply in the early stages of Q2 and that risks to the short-term outlook are skewed to the downside....

  • Mar 31 2020

    Africa: Beat of the debt relief drum begs bilateral creditors to dance

    With Covid-19 spreading fast, African countries have been swift to enforce physical distancing measures, where possible, and limiting transport mobility in a bid to slow the pace of contagion. The enf...

  • Mar 31 2020

    GCC: The COVID-19 response needs to be increased

    Governments across the GCC have implemented fiscal and monetary support to ward off the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic. With the exception of Bahrain, however, the fiscal measures have be...

  • Mar 31 2020

    United States: Job losses could surpass 20 million

    The sudden economic stop triggered by the coronavirus crisis has given rise to an unprecedented wave of layoffs. Given the extreme nature of the shock, we anticipate the US will experience the sharpes...

  • Mar 31 2020

    Malaysia: Government turns on the fiscal taps

    Despite financing constraints, the Malaysian government has announced a much larger than expected fiscal stimulus package amounting to MYR250bn, 16.5% of GDP. The additional fiscal measures focus on p...

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  • The #coronavirus is leading to unprecedented US layoffs. We estimate the US will see the sharpest job losses and highest #unemployment rise since WWII, with 20m jobs lost by April's #payrolls report tho' Friday's March data will show much smaller no.s: bit.ly/2JyTXQ1

  • With international #travel restrictions in 150 countries, our Tourism Economics team project that the #coronavirus #pandemic will result in a 39% fall in global inbound arrivals this year, with all regions hit by a big drop in travel and #tourism. bit.ly/2X4cmw2

  • As the impact of the #coronavirus #pandemic grows, we expect global industrial production to decline 2% this year, with the worst effects concentrated in H1 – but a strong recovery from late-2020: bit.ly/2xBsRFu
    Coronavirus latest: bit.ly/2UN1Uq8

  • The #pandemic will badly hit #emergingmarket economies. Limitations in health care, fiscal buffers, economic structure make #EMs vulnerable. Our scorecard ranks EMs exposure: LatAm and Africa worst affected: bit.ly/2xFvhmA
    Coronavirus latest: bit.ly/2Uw6aeL

  • As the impact of the #coronavirus #pandemic grows, we expect global industrial production to decline 2% this year, with the worst effects concentrated in H1 – but a strong recovery from late-2020: bit.ly/3bD1vxb Coronavirus latest: bit.ly/3bKMA4p

  • We've collated our most recent reports on the #economic implications of the #coronavirus in one place, so you can stay up to date with the latest developments. bit.ly/3avj5Db

  • In the #US, three of the most populous states, #NewYork, #NewJersey and #Florida have aging #healthcare workforces likely to be more vulnerable to the #coronavirus #COVID-19 #pandemic, with serious implications for already-stressed health systems: bit.ly/2Jmt0zd