Navigating Economic Uncertainty in 2024
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Unlock the power of economics, to find the opportunities for growth in 2024
Welcome to a world where global decisions ripple across borders, shaping interconnected destinies. In the midst of information overload, finding the essential factors for organisational success can feel like searching for a needle in a haystack. This is the challenge businesses face, navigating a dynamic environment where deciphering macroeconomic shifts is vital.
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Key themes for 2024 and beyond
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APAC Key themes 2024 – A year of living cautiously
In 2024, the main influence on Asia is likely to be a global slowdown, particularly in China and the US. Moreover, governments have limited policy space to deal with these headwinds. Other negative influences, however, are set to ease further, including domestic inflation, external pressure on interest rates, and softening semiconductor prices. Overall, we expect a bumpy year as issues become more country-specific and policy responses and economic outcomes diverge.
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Latin America Key Themes 2024 – Slower growth, but it’s not all bad news
Growth in most LatAm economies will be below consensus. Economic momentum has surprised to the upside through most of 2023, but the full effects of record global and domestic monetary tightening are yet to be seen.
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Eurozone key themes 2024 – A fragile recovery will gain impulse
After a year of stagnating activity, the eurozone economy will continue to struggle to gain traction in the near term given multiple headwinds. But we expect a gradual recovery in 2024 that will gather momentum as consumers regain some of their lost purchasing power and financial conditions ease.
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UK Key themes 2024 – Tight policy settings weigh on growth
The UK's house price correction has been mild so far and recent data has indicated the market may be more resilient than we had thought. But we still think the downturn has some way to run.
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Global Key Themes for 2024 | Beyond the Headlines
It's widely believed that global growth and inflation will slow in 2024 and that advanced economy central banks will begin to pivot in H2. In this week’s Beyond the Headlines, join Ben May, Director, Macro Forecasting and Analysis, as he outlines the three key themes which we believe will have an important bearing on the precise path the economy and financial markets will take next year.
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Which countries are likely to see fastest growth?
Get the latest insights to help determine which countries are likely to see the fastest growth into 2024 and beyond.
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Economies with pre-existing conditions suffer bigger Covid scars
We project the distribution of long-term economic pain inflicted by Covid will be similar to humans in the sense that those with pre-existing conditions will end up suffering the most.
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Long-term forward rates have risen too far
We've recently revised up our forecasts for US and UK bond yields in the long term by 50 basis points; we've also revised up Japanese and German yields by 20 to 25 basis points.
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EM Asia leads the pack with highest convergence potential
Based on the middle-income trap literature, we developed a long-term growth indicator that used 33 metrics to assess risks to EM economies' long-term growth potential.
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AI and productivity growth – a note of caution
Some observers are predicting a very big uplift to global productivity and economic growth from developments in artificial intelligence. But our historical analysis of productivity growth and technological change suggests that while AI could be transformative for some sectors, it's unlikely to shift world growth on to a markedly higher path.
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After the post-pandemic slump, a steady climb back for Latin America
We expect Latin America's six largest countries' combined GDP to expand 0.8% next year, down from our 1.8% forecast for 2023 and the consensus' 1.4%. The dissipation of idiosyncratic shocks and less restrictive domestic policies should support a broad regional recovery in 2024 from the recessions LatAm's major economies are in or about to enter.
Find Out MoreWhich cities are likely to see fastest growth?
Get the latest insights to help determine which cities and metro areas are likely to see the fastest growth into 2024 and beyond.
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A benign growth outlook for European cities, with some bright spots
GDP growth in Europe's major cities will be modest in 2024, with nearly half seeing a slowdown from 2023. However, given the backdrop of weakening activity across European countries, a loss of momentum is hardly surprising. And even with this difficult setting we still expect city GDP growth to, on average, outpace national economies.
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Most US metros to see slower growth in 2024
Most metros have had steady GDP and job growth in 2023 but will start to see quarterly declines in Q4 or Q1 2024. All of the top 50 metros are forecast to see a slowdown in GDP growth in 2024, driven by lower finance and real estate GDP more than by other sectors.
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New economy cities defy some of the GDP slowdown in China
Recent months have been tough for China and its major cities. While year-on-year growth rates picked up in Q2, they were below expectations and, as a result, we have downgraded many of our estimates of GDP growth in 2023. However, our forecasts show significant divergences, with as many cities underperforming our national GDP growth expectations as overperforming.
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Largest Canadian metros appear more resilient to the recession
The year ahead will be tough for Canadian metros, with a range of pressures imposed upon them. However, there are glimmers of light, and we expect GDP to rise in six of the 10 major metros. Calgary is expected to grow the fastest, while Montreal will outperform both Vancouver and Toronto.
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Indian cities’ growth will outpace rest of APAC in 2024
Economic growth will generally remain subdued across major APAC cities in 2024. Nevertheless, we think that some cities will stand out for their better performance. These cities are either located in an economically dynamic country, as is the case for Bengaluru and Hyderabad, or will benefit from somewhat better prospects for their manufacturing sectors, for instance Singapore.
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