Events and Webinars

We run a worldwide programme of insightful conferences, roundtables, webinars and podcasts presented by our economic experts.

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Webinar
Asset allocation perspectives in a stronger for longer environment

with Daniel von Ahlen | Online | March 28, 2024

Our cross-asset framework points to a constructive stance on the global cycle and we think risk assets will outperform over the next 6-12m even if rich valuations suggest the upside will likely be limited. We suspect that the risk that inflation will stabilise above the Fed's target in H2 is still under priced by bond markets and remain cautious on duration. We discuss why equities will continue to edge higher but the pace of returns is likely to slow, and we see greater return potential in other asset classes such as credit.

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Webinar
Long-haul travel prospects as the sector moves beyond recovery

with Dave Goodger and Helen McDermott | Online | March 27, 2024

2023 marked the recovery of the travel sector to pre-pandemic levels, with complete recovery of international travel anticipated for 2024. However, long-haul travel has lagged wider activity to date. As we move towards peak travel months for many markets we will assess travel demand across major destinations and source markets in this webinar, including changes in short-haul and long-haul flows and the importance of capacity and travel policies. The impact of geopolitical tensions and perceptions of safety will be considered as well as sustainability trends and costs.

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Webinar
A health-check on China’s real estate and construction industries: Are we still on life support?

with Louise Loo, Nicholas Fearnley and April Skinner | Online | March 26, 2024

China’s property downturn continues to weigh on the outlook. Can we be hopeful that the economy will successfully decouple from its old property-led growth model? How much of an offset can state-led construction provide as authorities look to prop the economy up? Join us in a discussion between Louise Loo our China Macro-economist and April Skinner our China Construction economist, as we address some of the FAQs around China’s housing and construction sectors and take a pulse-check on property’s multi-year correction process. Key talking points: How far does China’s real estate downturn have to go? What are the longer term implications for building construction? How much can state-led infrastructure projects prop up the economy? Will the “New Three" Industries keep the economy afloat? Supply chain risks and what this means for costs and construction.

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Webinar
China’s fiscal policy: shifting from local to central

with Louise Loo and Betty Wang | Online | March 22, 2024

1/ Is the official budget enough to help achieve the implied optimistic GDP growth in 2024? 2/ Does the issuance of special treasury bonds suggest a shift of stimulus focus from local governments to the central government? 3/ What could be the potential sectors receiving fiscal support?

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Webinar
Commodity markets have largely shrugged off the Red Sea attacks, will they do the same with OPEC+ cuts?

with Stephen Hare | Online | March 21, 2024

Commodity markets have been relatively calm in the face of actual and potential threats to supply over the past year. But will this calm remain? With OPEC+ tightening supply further with its latest extension, just as central banks begin cutting rates and Beijing implements stimulus measures, we discuss the implications for the oil market as well as the impact on commodities more generally.

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Webinar
How a global soft landing is (almost) in view

with Ben May and Adam Slater | Online | March 19, 2024

We examine how the global economy has confounded most expectations over the last year with inflation falling back towards target without large output losses. We consider key factors behind this including developments in labour markets, financial stresses, energy prices and fiscal policies. We also look at lingering ‘hard landing’ risks and in which geographies they are most prominent.

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Webinar
Eurozone: On a slow path towards recovery

with Rory Fennessy | Online | March 18, 2024

While the worst may be over for the eurozone economy, the prospect of a quick revival in growth is limited. Activity should pick up stronger in the second half of 2024 as falling inflation supports real incomes and consumer spending, but more restrictive fiscal policy as government priorities shift from providing support to deficit reduction will drag on growth. We expect the ECB to commence with rate cuts in Q2, although growth won’t receive a boost until 2025.

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Webinar
Nordic outlook: Divergent fortunes

with Rory Fennessy | Online | March 18, 2024

We expect growth in the Nordic economies to pick up but diverge this year with Denmark performing the best and Sweden the worst. In this webinar, we explore the key drivers of our Nordic macroeconomic, industry, and cities forecasts and the risks around them.

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Webinar
Industry to rebuild momentum in 2024

with Abby Samp and Max Anderson | Online | March 14, 2024

As 2024 progresses global industrial activity should pick up and begin to rebuild some momentum. Pass-through from lower wholesale energy prices, a move past the peak of impacts from past rate hikes and a trough in the de-stocking cycle should benefit manufacturing activity in the advanced economies. In China, manufacturing activity is likely to be highly asymmetric in 2024, with growth concentrated in the energy transition adjacent ‘New Three’ industries, while the ongoing property sector slump will curtail construction and its supply chain.

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Webinar
Latin America Regional Outlook – Growth turns a corner as monetary policy eases

with Tim Hunter and Debora Reyna Garcia | Online | March 13, 2024

In this webinar, we will review the regional outlook for Latin America. Central banks have largely triumphed in taming high inflation, but at a cost to output. Prospects should improve in the second half of this year, but there are important growth stories to uncover across countries. Key to this will be consumer spending, which has shown varying degrees of resilience to the high interest rates of the past few years. We will also review our latest research, with a focus on the outlook for monetary policy. This will be key for markets, with Mexico yet to start easing whereas Chile nears the end of its cycle.

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Webinar
Global Scenarios: Inflation Victory?

with Benjamin Trevis and Jamie Thompson | Online | March 11, 2024

This webinar examines the key insights from our latest Global Scenarios Service. We examine the possibility that central banks signal victory in the battle against inflation and sharply cut policy rates this year, the risk to the global economy from ongoing shipping disruption in the Red Sea, and the latest findings from our regular Global Risk Surveys.

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Webinar
Global Consumer Outlook: Finding growth in 2024 and beyond

with Alex Mackle and Marcos Casarin | Online | March 6, 2024

Global consumer spending will continue to grow this year, despite the general economic slowdown. But as demand weakens and consumers’ tolerance for higher prices wanes, retailers will have to rely more on volumes expansion to match last year’s sales performance. In this webinar, we dig into the economic outlook to find pockets of growth in consumer spending markets across countries, cities and different categories of spending.

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Webinar
The mitigating circumstances around EM public debt threats

with Evghenia Sleptsova and Gabriel Sterne | Online | March 5, 2024

For larger emerging markets (EMs) the supply shocks era has led to increased public debt-to-GDP ratios. But we find solace in our assessment of recent budgets and in our dissection of debt composition. Various frontier markets, however, remain bogged down in crisis resolution processes the length of which are proving very costly to debtors and creditors alike; but even in the case of frontiers we see encouraging signs that some may regain market access as global monetary conditions ease.

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Webinar
Asia’s medium term growth outlook and its implications for major cities

with Arup Raha and Scott McEwan | Online | February 28, 2024

Over the next five years, economic growth across Asia is likely to diverge especially with two of the giants moving in opposite directions; China slowing and India starting to realise its potential. This has implications for how the cities in these two countries are likely to expand. Major cities in southeast Asia area expected to perform relatively well but there are contrasting fortunes elsewhere. For example, in advanced Asia, the major cities of Australia should exhibit an impressive rate of jobs growth. Our expectations for the likes of Melbourne and Perth contrasts starkly with major East Asian cities in Japan and South Korea, where the pressures of ageing populations is dragging on the potential for growth in output and jobs. We present both a top-down medium-term macro outlook and tie that to how major cities in Asia are likely to develop over the next 5 years.

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Webinar
Sailing ahead: how cruise supply will help to sustain demand recovery

with Helen McDermott and Christian Savelli | Online | February 27, 2024

The cruise sector is experiencing a renaissance, with strong demand growth outpacing wider travel activity, regardless of a 25% deployment increase compared to 2019. Looking at our first forecast up to 2029, we will explain how future deployment will impact demand for cruising; how this will compare against wider demand trends; and how this aligns with cruisers’ preferences revealed in our first cruise passenger survey.

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Webinar
European Construction Outlook

with Nicholas Fearnley | Online | February 22, 2024

European construction activity remained resilient over 2023 despite the headwinds created by higher financing costs, input cost inflation and labour shortages. We generally expect this resilience to continue into 2024, although the outlook varies by country and sector. In this webinar Dr Nicholas Fearnley will discuss the outlook and key risks for construction activity in Europe, and answer the following questions: • How does the outlook vary across sectors and countries? • How do delays to NGEU funding affect the outlook? • When will the renovation wave take off? • What is the outlook for material construction costs? • What are the risks and implications of higher interest rates and construction costs?

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Webinar
Red Sea attacks are not an inflation gamechanger

with Ben May and Kiki Sondh | Online | February 21, 2024

We see the disruption to shipping in the Red Sea as more likely than not to last at least six months, implying that the associated rise in shipping costs will linger and move up the supply chain. While we expect the impact on CPI inflation to be small, it will take time before this becomes unambiguously clear. This uncertainty could ultimately prompt central banks to delay rate cuts to give themselves more information on the inflationary impacts. However, the Red Sea attacks are only one of many factors that policymakers will factor into their considerations – we still think rate cuts will commence around mid-2024.

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Webinar
Why we think LatAm interest rates will fall faster than markets expect

with Felipe Camargo and Joan Domene | Online | February 16, 2024

Our research on key long run drivers of interest rates – based on models and discretion – suggests that markets will face larger-than-expected drops in bond yields in the economies of the region. Global and domestic considerations lead us to forecast a 100bps drop in Brazilian 10-year yields and a 150bps in those of Mexico, both which exceed current consensus expectations.

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Webinar
Will lower inflation mean the MPC cuts rates faster?

with Andrew Goodwin and Edward Allenby | Online | February 15, 2024

The UK inflation outlook has been transformed by steep falls in oil and gas prices and a softening in core price pressures and we think there’s a good chance that inflation will be back at the 2% target in April. The case for loosening monetary policy looks strong, but will the MPC agree? In this webinar we look at how the inflation and monetary policy outlooks will evolve in 2024.

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