2024 US Presidential Election

In this series, we present our latest analysis on the 2024 US elections, the policy outlook and their broader economic implications.

The US presidential election cycle is well underway. The upcoming elections will affect the US economy beyond 2024 and are a major source of near-term uncertainty. Whoever is elected president will have a unique opportunity to work with Congress and shape fiscal policy. With many current tax policies set to expire at the end of 2025, this leaves a clear opportunity for lawmakers to make meaningful changes to tax, spending, and industrial policies.
Presidential elections not only have major implications for the future path of fiscal policy and the macroeconomic outlook, but they also impact the economy during the election year itself, albeit modestly. Elections also affect the economy in the run-up to polling day though the uncertainty generated around the selection of the eventual presidential nominees, an intensification of partisan conflict, historically looser fiscal policy, and political campaign spending.

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Economics of a second Trump presidency

Continuing our series of analyses on the 2024 election, we modeled the macroeconomic impact of a second Donald Trump presidency. This webinar will discuss the results of our constructed scenarios, including for inflation, GDP, monetary policy, trade and immigration.

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Policy in Focus

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Source: Oxford Economics
Source: Oxford Economics

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