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Latest Reports
Explore our latest reports to navigate the complexities of today’s economic landscape and gain a thorough understanding of how the macrocycle influences investment returns.
US Treasury demand is holding, but the buyer base is shifting
Treasury demand is evolving, with a notable shift towards more price-sensitive buyers amid changing market dynamics. While Treasury yields are expected to remain elevated in the near term, a gradual decline is anticipated as inflation pressures ease.
Read more: US Treasury demand is holding, but the buyer base is shifting
US PCE nowcast – Slow progress in easing inflation in July
Inflation remains a pressing concern, with the PCE index showing only slight progress in July. Headline PCE inflation is expected to decrease marginally to 3.6%, while core PCE inflation holds steady at 3.3%.
Read more: US PCE nowcast – Slow progress in easing inflation in July
What low breakeven employment growth means for the US labour market
The US labour market is experiencing a significant slowdown, with the breakeven pace of monthly employment growth forecasted to decline from 50,000 today to zero next year, and potentially turn slightly negative by 2028. This trend suggests that the recent increases in nonfarm payrolls may not accurately reflect the market’s strength.
Read more: What low breakeven employment growth means for the US labour market
The moat illusion – China’s bid to deflate US AI valuations
China’s low-cost AI models are narrowing the US AI moat, reshaping competition and raising questions over valuations, compute and the economics of AI scale.
Read more: The moat illusion – China’s bid to deflate US AI valuations
Economic Impacts of US-Canada Tariff Escalation Under the USMCA
To understand the potential ramifications of changes in the economic relationship between the US and Canada, the Canadian American Business Council (CABC) commissioned Oxford Economics to undertake a study which takes stock of the US-Canada commercial relationship and assesses the likely economic consequences of three distinct potential outcomes of USMCA negotiations. The study utilizes a sophisticated, multi-model approach to quantify the risks of a potential dissolution of USMCA against the upside of a successful renegotiation of the agreement, both measured against a status quo scenario anchored to the bilateral tariff regime in effect in mid-2026, with impacts assessed across industries and down to the state and province levels.
Read more: Economic Impacts of US-Canada Tariff Escalation Under the USMCA
Forecasting the future of cities, neighbourhood by neighbourhood
Introducing Oxford Economics’ new granular urban model—our first Quantitative Spatial Equilibrium model—designed to forecast and visualise how cities evolve at neighbourhood scale.
Read more: Forecasting the future of cities, neighbourhood by neighbourhoodRead more →
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