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Latest Reports
Explore our latest reports to navigate the complexities of today’s economic landscape and gain a thorough understanding of how the macrocycle influences investment returns.
Impact of the Iran war on GCC economies
In response to the US-Iran war, we’ve downgraded our forecast for GCC real GDP growth by 1.8ppts to 2.6% for 2026 due to lower oil production exports, tourism, and domestic demand.
Read more: Impact of the Iran war on GCC economies
Checking the count: How official statistics are missing the warehouse revolution
The US warehousing sector has undergone a profound transformation, evolving from traditional storage sites into high‑throughput logistics hubs that handle picking, packing, and goods movement at unprecedented scale. Employment has nearly tripled, mega‑facilities now anchor the industry’s footprint, and the mix of occupations has shifted toward item‑level fulfillment work, automation‑supported workflows, and increasingly technical roles.
Read more: Checking the count: How official statistics are missing the warehouse revolution
From the Iran war to tariffs: how global shocks impact industry
While the fundamentals for global industrial growth have remained relatively constant, downside risks have notably risen.
Read more: From the Iran war to tariffs: how global shocks impact industry
How will central banks respond to the Iran conflict?
Energy prices are pushing inflation higher in the UK and Eurozone, undermining the idea that central banks can simply look through supply shocks. If price pressures persist, can policymakers really afford to stay on hold?
Read more: How will central banks respond to the Iran conflict?
Wage growth should slow, but upside risks persist in Australia
RESEARCH BRIEFING Wage growth should slow, but upside risks persist in Australia Labour shortages and strong demand continue to support wage growth.
Read more: Wage growth should slow, but upside risks persist in Australia
US PCE Nowcast – Rise in core inflation isn’t a signal for 2026
Our January PCE nowcast points to a slightly stronger monthly gain than seen in the CPI report, with headline PCE rising 0.3% and core PCE increasing 0.4%. This would leave headline inflation steady at 2.9% year-over-year while core inflation edges up to 3.1% from 3% in December. Despite the uptick, slower unit labor costs and shelter-cost disinflation should keep core price pressures on a downward path, with core inflation expected to reach 2.3% by year-end.
Read more: US PCE Nowcast – Rise in core inflation isn’t a signal for 2026Read more →
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