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Latest Reports
Explore our latest reports to navigate the complexities of today’s economic landscape and gain a thorough understanding of how the macrocycle influences investment returns.
US Wealth effects are a major swing factor for the consumer outlook
Wealth effects significantly influence consumer spending, with fluctuations in asset values shaping household financial behavior. As we look ahead, the impact of these effects is expected to diminish, particularly influenced by the evolving role of artificial intelligence.
Read more: US Wealth effects are a major swing factor for the consumer outlook
Bonds and the end of the global savings glut
Is the “end of the global savings glut” story reflected in bond prices? Three different approaches to fair value for 10-year Treasurys suggest the answer is yes.
Read more: Bonds and the end of the global savings glut
Auto sector faces a tariff speed bump as US-Canada trade relations worsen
The auto sector is facing significant challenges as US-Canada trade relations worsen, with the introduction of 50% tariffs on select Canadian goods. This new tariff regime is expected to impact US GDP growth and consumer prices in the automotive market.
Read more: Auto sector faces a tariff speed bump as US-Canada trade relations worsen
US Treasury demand is holding, but the buyer base is shifting
Treasury demand is evolving, with a notable shift towards more price-sensitive buyers amid changing market dynamics. While Treasury yields are expected to remain elevated in the near term, a gradual decline is anticipated as inflation pressures ease.
Read more: US Treasury demand is holding, but the buyer base is shifting
US Labor Market Tracker – Weak hiring, fewer job seekers bring balance
The current labor market is experiencing a delicate balance, characterized by weak hiring and a decline in job seekers. While demand for workers remains subdued, the supply of available labor has contracted more significantly.
Read more: US Labor Market Tracker – Weak hiring, fewer job seekers bring balance
US PCE nowcast – Slow progress in easing inflation in July
Inflation remains a pressing concern, with the PCE index showing only slight progress in July. Headline PCE inflation is expected to decrease marginally to 3.6%, while core PCE inflation holds steady at 3.3%.
Read more: US PCE nowcast – Slow progress in easing inflation in JulyRead more →
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