A year of transition towards a stronger recovery. Presented by, Daniel Kral.

With the global economy still digesting the period of high inflation and higher interest rates, we expect this year we will see a gradual improvement in activity, which should gather momentum in 2025. The US economy will outperform Europe once again, due to looser fiscal policy and stronger consumption, as European consumers remain cautious about the outlook, although the outlook for 2025 looks brighter as a recovery in real incomes and the impact of looser policy feeds through the economy. The relative growth and inflation differentials should lead to a stronger interest rate cut cycle by the ECB, but with policymakers still scarred by the high inflation episode, there is a risk that the central bank retains a hawkish bias and cuts too little too late.

Momentum to return later this year, but Europe faces structural headwinds. Presented by, Jeremy Leonard.

As 2024 progresses, global industrial activity should pick up and begin to rebuild some momentum. Pass-through from lower wholesale energy prices, a move past the peak of impacts from past rate hikes and a trough in the de-stocking cycle should benefit manufacturing activity in the advanced economies. In China, growth is likely to be highly asymmetric in 2024, with real estate and other traditional growth drivers struggling while energy transition-adjacent industries, as well as high-tech manufacturing blossom. These patterns risk increasing import competition for Europe, which, on top of still-high energy costs, clouds the medium-term competitive outlook.

Risks more balanced around our improved global outlook. Presented by, Alessandro Theiss.

Risks to global growth now appear more balanced as the outlook for the global economy has improved. Downside risks are still dominated by the potential fall-out from geopolitical tensions and the possibility of higher for longer interest rates. But upside hopes now rest on more substantial monetary policy easing than expected.

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