A year of transition towards a stronger recovery. Presented by, Angel Talavera.

With the global economy still digesting the period of high inflation and higher interest rates, we expect this year we will see a gradual improvement in activity, which should gather momentum in 2025. The US economy will outperform Europe once again, due to looser fiscal policy and stronger consumption, as European consumers remain cautious about the outlook, although the outlook for 2025 looks brighter as a recovery in real incomes and the impact of looser policy feeds through the economy. The relative growth and inflation differentials should lead to a stronger interest rate cut cycle by the ECB, but with policymakers still scarred by the high inflation episode, there is a risk that the central bank retains a hawkish bias and cuts too little too late.

Risks more balanced around our improved global outlook. Presented by, Alessandro Theiss.

Risks to global growth now appear more balanced as the outlook for the global economy has improved. Downside risks are still dominated by the potential fall-out from geopolitical tensions and the possibility of higher for longer interest rates. But upside hopes now rest on more substantial monetary policy easing than expected.

Asset allocation perspectives in a late cycle environment. Presented by, Daniel Grosvenor.

Global equities are being underpinned by resilient economic activity and even as the pace of overall returns is likely to slow, a benign macro environment should allow the rally to broaden to the more beaten-down areas of the market such as EM equities and small caps. On a cross-asset basis, we are underweight bonds on resilient global growth, upside risks to inflation and unattractive duration risk premia.

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