Caution is warranted despite the initial resilience to higher energy prices

Each month Oxford Economics’ team of 450 economists and analysts updates our baseline forecast for 200+ countries using our innovative Global Economic Model. Fully linking individual country models through global assumptions about trade volume and prices, competitiveness, capital flows, interest and exchange rates, and commodity prices, our model provides a rigorous and consistent structure for forecasting and understanding the impact of economic shocks.

Below is just the top-level summary of our analysis of the latest economic developments.

• We’ve reduced our world GDP growth forecast for 2027 by 0.2ppts to 2.9% as the global economy continues to weather the energy price shock. 
• While this leaves growth in the middle of the 2.8%-3% range seen in recent years, our forecast remains below our baseline prior to the outbreak of the Iran conflict.
• GDP data for Q2 has shown that the initial hit to world activity from the consequences of the Iran conflict was less severe than we had previously assumed. 

To find out more complete the form.