High oil price and hawkish central banks add to 2027 growth challenges

Each month Oxford Economics’ team of 450 economists and analysts updates our baseline forecast for 200+ countries using our innovative Global Economic Model. Fully linking individual country models through global assumptions about trade volume and prices, competitiveness, capital flows, interest and exchange rates, and commodity prices, our model provides a rigorous and consistent structure for forecasting and understanding the impact of economic shocks.

Below is just the top-level summary of our analysis of the latest economic developments.

• Since the start of September, we’ve lowered our world GDP growth forecast by 0.1ppt to 2.8%, leaving it at the bottom end of the tight 2.8%-3% range seen in recent years. 
• The oil supply shock shows no sign of ending despite the rise in oil exports from the Middle East, making it harder for central banks to look through it. 
• We therefore expect major central banks will raise rates further.

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