World Economic Prospects: Global economy to fall into a recession

November/December 2022

Each month Oxford Economics’ team of 300 economists and analysts updates our baseline forecast for 200+ countries using our innovative Global Economic Model. Fully linking individual country models through global assumptions about trade volume and prices, competitiveness, capital flows, interest and exchange rates, and commodity prices, our model provides a rigorous and consistent structure for forecasting and understanding the impact of economic shocks. Below is just the top-level summary of our analysis of the latest economic developments.

• A worse near-term outlook for Chinese GDP growth has prompted us to lower our global GDP growth forecasts.
• We now expect the global economy to grow by just 1.3% in 2023, well below this year’s 2.9% gain and 0.2ppts lower than our forecast in October. Our 2023 GDP forecasts for advanced economies and emerging markets remain well below consensus.
• Q3 quarter-on-quarter global GDP growth has been revised up a touch to a pretty robust 0.8% from 0.6% last month, reflecting some slightly stronger than expected GDP outturns, most notably for the US, eurozone, and China.

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