Fears of a US recession are wide of the mark

Aug/Sept 2024

Each month Oxford Economics’ team of 300 economists and analysts updates our baseline forecast for 200+ countries using our innovative Global Economic Model. Fully linking individual country models through global assumptions about trade volume and prices, competitiveness, capital flows, interest and exchange rates, and commodity prices, our model provides a rigorous and consistent structure for forecasting and understanding the impact of economic shocks. Below is just the top-level summary of our analysis of the latest economic developments.

• We believe the growing concerns that the US might be slipping towards a recession are unfounded and think recent news remain consistent with a more orderly and benign growth slowdown.
• Against this backdrop, we expect the world economy will grow by 2.7% both this year and next, very similar to our growth forecasts a month ago.
• The recent rise in the US unemployment rate has breached the Sahm rule – a closely watched recession indicator – compounding the equity market selloff, particularly in the tech sector.

To find out more complete the form.