Small growth revisions mask deeper tectonic shifts

Nov / Dec 2024

Each month Oxford Economics’ team of 300 economists and analysts updates our baseline forecast for 200+ countries using our innovative Global Economic Model. Fully linking individual country models through global assumptions about trade volume and prices, competitiveness, capital flows, interest and exchange rates, and commodity prices, our model provides a rigorous and consistent structure for forecasting and understanding the impact of economic shocks. Below is just the top-level summary of our analysis of the latest economic developments.

• The news that Donald Trump will be the next US president and the Republicans will likely gain full control of Congress has huge ramifications for the global economy.
• While we’ve made some relatively small top-level adjustments to our global GDP and main macro forecasts, these shifts significantly underplay the implications at a sectoral level and for financial markets.
• The prospect of more fiscal stimulus in the US alongside earlier news that China will step up fiscal support imply slightly better global growth over the next year or two.

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