Global Macro Service
Oil Forecast & Scenarios Service
Assess oil price risks and their potential impact
The Oil Forecast and Scenarios Service employs a comprehensive and transparent modelling approach for forecasting, scenario and policy analysis to assess oil price risks and their potential impact.
Combining in-depth oil market intelligence with state-of-the-art economic models of the global oil market, the service allows readers to gain a rich understanding of the impact of macroeconomic developments and different types of supply shock on the oil market in a transparent and fully quantified way.
What the service includes
Ideal for applications including:
- Real-time forecasting
- Scenario analysis
- Stress testing
- Impact and policy analysis
- Quarterly Outlook. Quarterly updated research briefings, two-year ahead forecasts and real-time scenario analysis on price movements, geopolitics, OPEC and non-OPEC supply, global oil demand and OECD stocks, including reference price forecasts, the balance of risks and the supply/demand balances
- Monthly Update. Monthly reports reporting the updated reference price forecasts, assessing real-time supply and demand risks to the forecasts and how the balance of risks is developing, together with the headline results
- Forecast Data. The service covers historical and forecast data (two years) on a monthly, quarterly and annual frequency
- Customised Forecast and Scenarios. Our models, forecasts and datasets can be customised to facilitate adhoc requests
- Webinars and Presentations. Bi-annual webinars presenting the updated outlook for the global oil market, discussing oil market-moving fundamentals and price dynamics, the prevailing risks to the price outlook and their potential impact
What are the benefits?
- Expertise at your fingertips. Combining our macroeconomic forecasting expertise and the expertise and experience of our senior energy analysts, you can rely on our forecasts to assess the outlook for oil prices
- Confidence in a volatile world. Consistently high directional accuracy with success ratio as high as 85%
- Transparent and consistent. This service is powered by our Global Economic Model and country analysis, ensuring full internal consistency between the oil market and the economy
FORECASTING PERFORMANCE
The principal model underlying the Oil Forecast and Scenarios Service is a state-of-the-art structural vector-autoregressive (VAR) model of the global oil market that includes advanced monthly macro variables relevant to the oil price determination process with a deep history that dates back to 1990, in line with economic theory and institutional knowledge to support our sophisticated forecasting and analytical activities.
The flexible and global structure of our SVAR model is specifically designed to allow for feedback to secondary models for US and other non-OPEC supply, OECD/non-OECD demand which determine global balances. The US supply model is further broken down into conventional and unconventional production, from which we forecast US shale production, drilling activity and productivity.
Tried and tested in the oil market, advanced SVAR models have a proven track record of superior forecast accuracy in real-time at horizons up to 24 months. The advanced structure of this model provides deep economic insights into the drivers and associated risks underlying the oil price forecasts, allowing emerging shocks and risks to the market.
Please contact your local representative to find out more about the monthly forecasts service or to request access.