Mapping the Plastics Value Chain: A framework to understand the socio-economic impacts of a production cap on virgin plastics
Commissioned by The International Council of Chemical Associations (ICCA)
In March 2022, the United Nations Environment Assembly (UNEA) decided to forge a legally binding international instrument to end plastic pollution. One option in the current draft instrument text considers the implementation of a global production cap on virgin primary plastic polymers.
The global plastics and chemical industry, represented by the International Council of Chemical Associations (ICCA), has expressed its commitment towards ending plastic pollution, but believes the potential socio-economic impacts and other unintended consequences that may arise from the implementation of a production cap have not been fully evaluated. To this end, Oxford Economics was commissioned to analyze the socio-economic and environmental implications of policy interventions that could be used to support UNEA’s objective.
This report documents Oxford Economics’ findings from the following major research tasks:
- Undertaking an extensive data gathering exercise to inform estimates of the current structure of the plastics global value chain and its potential future trajectory.
- Drawing on economic theory and the empirical evidence gathered from the value chain mapping to explore the expected implications of a production cap on the plastics market.
The experts behind the research
Our Economic Consulting team are world leaders in quantitative economic analysis, working with clients around the globe and across sectors to build models, forecast markets and evaluate interventions using state-of-the art techniques. Lead consultants on this project were:
Henry Worthington
Director, Economic Consulting
Alice Gambarin
Lead Economist, Economic Consulting
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