Global | Coronavirus Watch: Early lessons from Israel
18 Jan 2021 - The speedy vaccine rollout in Israel means that the majority of the most vulnerable to Covid-19 there may soon enjoy peak protection from the virus.
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Global | For world trade, a strong but incomplete rebound in 2021
11 Jan 2021 - World goods trade recovered strongly in the second half of 2020 and by mid2021 should be expanding at a double-digit annual pace.
Global | Coronavirus Watch: Optimism surge proves short lived
11 Jan 2021 - The sense of optimism at the prospect of widespread vaccinations in 2021 has been deflated by the discovery of more transmissible forms of coronavirus in the UK and South Africa, as well as the stuttering start to vaccination programmes in some advanced economies.
US | A low neutral policy rate with a 1% handle
06 Jan 2021 - What was once considered a floor, may now represent a ceiling for the nominal neutral policy rate (r*).
UK | New lockdown set to push UK back into recession
05 Jan 2021 - We expect the introduction of a third lockdown to cause GDP to fall more than 4% q/q in Q1.
UK | Tougher restrictions take a toll on high frequency data
05 Jan 2021 - According to the latest high-frequency data the economic respite offered by the lifting of the England-wide lockdown in November has proved short-lived.
Global | Coronavirus Watch: Inflation – this time isn’t different
04 Jan 2021 - The prospect of large shares of some economies’ populations being vaccinated in the first half of 2021, supporting a return to some degree of normality, has stoked renewed concerns that inflation could pick up sharply this year.
Global | Coronavirus Watch: Three key vaccine uncertainties
14 Dec 2020 - Over the past month, we have revised up our global GDP growth forecast for 2021 to 5.2% from 4.9%. We also see a more favourable balance of risks around our forecast. But considering the significant impact of vaccine developments, what might prompt us to become even more optimistic?
Global | Vaccine optimism reduces EM risks
10 Dec 2020 - The positive developments on Covid-19 vaccines are broadly in line with our baseline forecast for emerging markets – we expect a noticeable impact from mass vaccination programs from around mid 2021.
Global | Coronavirus Watch: Industry’s strength to endure
07 Dec 2020 - The latest PMI data suggest that the activity hit from lockdowns and tighter restrictions in November won’t be sufficient to prompt another contraction in global growth and that the industrial sector continues to perform strongly.
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