Understand the economic impact of the coronavirus.
20 September 2021 - The recent broad-based rises in core inflation across a range of advanced economies has reopened the debate as to whether this year’s rise in inflation really is a purely transitory phenomenon.
06 September 2021 - Delta remains the primary threat to the recovery, but we also think that the drag from continuing supply-chain disruption will be critical in the near term.
26 August 2021 - More than 11 million individuals will lose access to emergency unemployment benefits at the end of next week creating a headwind for personal income and consumer spending.
23 August 2021 - We have cut our near-term growth forecasts, in part due to the spread of Delta, and are likely to fine-tune them further in September. But we don’t see Delta as a cause for major panic.
09 August 2021 - We estimate world GDP surpassed pre pandemic levels in Q2. But in recent weeks surging cases of the Delta variant have added to concerns over the strength and breadth of the recovery.
04 August 2021 - We see the strong pull back in long-term US yields since the peak of the reflation trade this year as an opportunity to enter new positions that capitalise on future macro trends driven by mid-cycle dynamics.
26 July 2021 - The spread of the Delta coronavirus variant appears to have usurped inflation as the key concern.
21 July 2021 - Our analysis of key economic indicators suggests on balance the economy is in the mid-cycle phase of the business cycle. We believe the expansion has legs to run in spite of being past peak growth and policy accommodation.
20 July 2021 - Our estimates suggest that house prices in advanced economies may be around 10% overvalued versus long-term trends, albeit with considerable variation between economies.
12 July 2021 - Concerns within markets about the impact of the Delta variant on the economy is in our view warranted. We have long warned that vaccinations would be unlikely to trigger a smooth transition to normalcy.
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