Research Briefing | Jul 15, 2022

What the pandemic tells us about the risks to growth

Global economic uncertainty remains elevated, despite an easing in concerns about the fallout from war. Evidence suggests risks to growth are significantly greater than prior to the pandemic.

What you will learn:

  • We have extended our analysis of past forecast errors to incorporate the economic disruption seen during the coronavirus pandemic.
  • Our latest estimates imply a higher probability of tail risks in the near term and further ahead.
  • Growth varied hugely across countries in the aftermath of earlier public health crises.

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