Global Scenarios Service
Quantify global risks and assess their business implications
Overview
In an increasingly volatile global environment, organisations need to understand how key risks could influence your markets, operations and investment performance, and do so quickly.
Our Global Scenarios Service provides ready-to-use economic scenarios built around today’s most pressing risks. Grounded in our global modelling framework, it allows you to assess how shocks translate into economic and financial market outcomes across 87 economies, enabling more robust risk management, regulatory reporting, and strategic planning.
What’s included?
Our Global Scenario Service combines Oxford Economics’ baseline forecast with a set of alternative upside and downside scenarios for 87 economies, regularly refreshed to reflect evolving global conditions.
Scenario forecasts
- Scenario forecasts. Access global economic scenarios for 87 economies over a five-year horizon, covering a wide range of macroeconomic and financial indicators, including GDP, consumption, investment, employment, inflation, interest rates, government finances, exchange rates and major equity indices. Updated twice-monthly in line with our latest global outlook.
- Baseline forecasts. Oxford Economics’ house view, providing twice-monthly updates on global economic conditions and outlook.
- Scenario dashboard. Explore and compare scenario outcomes across countries and variables in a few clicks. Evaluate risk-weighted projections based on our probability assessments, or adjust scenario probabilities to reflect your own risk outlook and generate customised outcomes.
- Asset chart pack. Ready-to-use visualisations of scenario outcomes for key asset classes across selected major economies, designed to support analysis, reporting, and stakeholder communication.
- Model integration and bespoke scenarios. For clients that subscribe to both the Global Economic Model and the Global Scenarios Service, core scenario inputs can be integrated directly into the model environment to support advanced scenario modelling. We also offer bespoke scenario design, tailored to your specific exposures.
Every two weeks
databank and dashboard updates
Every four weeks
report and chartbook updates
Every six weeks
global risk surveys
Scenario analysis
- Global Risk survey. A high-frequency survey conducted eight times a year, providing timely insight into how businesses perceive global risks and how these views evolve, directly shaping our scenario development and determining which risks are prioritised.
- Global Scenarios report. A detailed report outlining baseline and alternative global economic scenarios, helping you interpret through probabilities, context, key assumptions, transmission channels, and key economic and market outcomes.
- Research Briefings. Thematic analysis of the macroeconomic developments, policy changes, and market shifts shaping the global risk landscape.
- Economist support. Direct access to our economists for questions about forecasts and scenario design, supported by regular webinars.
Benefits
Our scenarios and analysis enable more robust stress testing, regulatory reporting, risk management, and strategic planning without the time and resource required to build and maintain models and scenarios internally.
- Stress test strategies and exposures. Use model-based economic scenarios to assess how different economic conditions could affect your operating environment, identifying vulnerabilities and sensitivities across markets and regions.
- Strengthen risk management. Quantify interconnected risks across geographies and markets, enabling more robust risk assessment, governance, and scenario-based planning.
- Support regulatory and internal reporting. Leverage transparent, model-driven scenarios to support reporting requirements, with clearly defined assumptions and defensible methodologies.
- Inform planning and investment decisions. Compare baseline, downside, and upside scenarios to guide strategic planning, capital allocation, and contingency planning in an increasingly uncertain global environment.
- Stay aligned with risk priorities. Understand how global risk perceptions are shifting using insights from our Global Risk Survey, helping you validate your internal assumptions.
Why Oxford Economics?
Risks rarely occur in isolation. Economic, geopolitical, and financial shocks interact across and transmit through trade, supply chains, and financial markets, in turn shaping growth, inflation, and asset prices.
Our Global Scenarios Service captures these interlinkages through a fully model-driven framework. It delivers ready-to-use scenarios, giving you a consistent and quantitative view of how risks propagate through the global economy.
A fully model-driven framework
All scenarios are built within the Global Economic Model, which links economies through trade, competitiveness, and more. This scenario modelling framework allows us to better quantify how risks in one region or asset class ripple through the global economy and financial system.
Transparency you can rely on
Every scenario is constructed with explicit assumptions and clearly defined transmission channels. All methodologies are fully transparent and designed to withstand rigorous scrutiny.
Built for real world application
Scenarios are informed by risk priorities identified through our Global Risk Survey and structured to support risk management reporting, and strategic planning.
Request a demo
Complete the form and we will contact you to set up your free trial.
Latest insights
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Testimonials
Oxford Economics has added real value to our long-term forecasting at Heathrow Airport. The scenario-based approach helps us explore a range of possible futures, giving us deeper insight into how climate transition could impact our market and business. and the available datasets have strengthened our ability to make informed, data-driven decisions. The regular updates and horizon scanning reports are also especially helpful in keeping us ahead of emerging trends and shifts we need to be aware of.
In working with Oxford Economics over the years, we’ve found a team showing genuine intellectual interest in providing technical advice and expertise to inform various business projects. The combination of concise reports, detailed supporting analysis and an easy-to-use and intuitive platform to access data and visualisations have been crucial in helping us to construct and communicate our scenario based forecasts.
Request a demo
Complete the form and we will contact you to set up your free trial. Please note that trials are only available for qualified users. We are committed to protecting your right to privacy and ensuring the privacy and security of your personal information. We will not share your personal information with other individuals or organisations without your permission.
