What next for Zambia as Hichilema looks set for re-election?

President Hakainde Hichilema is confident of re-election when Zambia goes to the polls on Thursday, August 13. In the concurrent legislative election, his ruling United Party for National Development (UPND) looks to improve on the 46.2% it achieved five years ago. Hichilema will stand by his economic record, even if some voters will be less effusive about his government’s performance and their economic realities.

Hichilema’s re-election hopes have been boosted by a divided opposition. His main challenger is Brian Mundubile, a senior lawmaker from the formerly ruling Patriotic Front (PF) who is running under the National Reconciliation Party for Unity and Prosperity banner. The deeply split PF did not nominate a presidential candidate itself. Reforms to the electoral system made in February strongly favour the UPND.

The maturity of Zambia’s last IMF facility, in January, marked the start of a drift towards more populist state intervention, as on fuel subsidies. Still, we are cautiously optimistic that a second term for Hichilema and the UPND will be characterised by fiscal credibility, and a conservative monetary policy anchor to safeguard the financial and banking system.

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