The strategic role of the EU fuel manufacturing and refining sector

Our report explores the industry’s strategic importance to the EU, the role it can play in enabling industrial transformation, and the economic risks that could emerge if refining capacity contracts faster than the transition can be delivered.

In 2025, the sector supported €200 billion in GDP, 1.8 million jobs, and €83 billion in tax revenues across the EU, while supplying the fuels and feedstocks that underpin transport, manufacturing, petrochemicals, agriculture, and household activity. However, the analysis also highlights the risks of a continued decline in refining capacity. A faster-than-expected contraction could reduce EU GDP by almost €25 billion, eliminate around 120,000 jobs, lower government revenues by €14 billion, and increase the EU’s reliance on imported fuels by 2035, with implications for competitiveness, energy security, and the transition to low-carbon fuels.