Global Risk Service
Capture early signals of sovereign, FX, and banking sector risks
Overview
Financial crises rarely emerge without warning. Vulnerabilities build over time across sovereign balance sheets, currency markets, and banking systems, often before they are visible in market pricing or headline indicators.
The Global Risk Service helps you identify where these risks are building and how likely it is that a crisis might happen. By combining a wide range of macroeconomic and financial indicators within a consistent framework, our service translates complex signals into predictive, comparable risk scores across 166 countries. This enables you to monitor risk profiles, assess exposure, and act earlier in response to emerging risks.
What’s included?
The Global Risk Service combines a suite of sovereign, FX, and banking sector risk tools within a single, consistent framework. Built on back-tested methodologies and incorporating forward-looking economic indicators, our service provides predictive and comparable measures of risk across 166 countries, with quarterly updates and data back to 2000.
Global risk tools
- Sovereign Risk Tool (SRT). Measure the vulnerability of countries to sovereign stress or default and its underlying drivers. SRT draws on 33 indicators covering economic, political, and institutional risks.
- FX Risk Tool (FXRT). Assess the risk of sharp currency depreciation across a variety of exchange rate regimes, from floating to managed and pegged, in developed and emerging markets. Based on 17 indicators, it captures external and domestic imbalances as well as risks emerging in financial and corporate sectors.
- Banking Sector Risk Tool (BSRT). Identify fragilities in banking systems by capturing the macroeconomic and financial conditions that typically precede systemic crises. The framework includes 33 indicators covering balance sheet weaknesses, overheating risks, and cyclical and structural vulnerabilities.
Flexible delivery
- Databank. Access overall and subcomponent risk scores alongside underlying macroeconomic and financial variables. Export results in tables, charts, and heatmaps in just a few clicks.
- Customisable Excel tool. Explore and customise risk data directly in Excel. Create bespoke risk scores by applying custom weights and download all underlying data.
Risk analysis
- Chartbooks. Monthly visual summaries highlighting key trends and emerging pressures across sovereign, FX, and banking sector risks.
- Research Briefings. Event-driven and thematic analysis examining macroeconomic developments, policy shifts, and the market dynamics shaping global risk.
- Economist support. Direct access to risk specialists for questions on methodology, risk scores, and analysis, supported by regular webinars.
Our clients use our risk tools to:
Inform investment decisions and identify mispricing
Gain an independent view of sovereign and FX risk to support investment strategy, identify potential mispricing, and complement credit ratings.
Strengthen risk management
Monitor the vulnerability of countries, customers, and counterparties to sovereign or financial stress, supporting lending, treasury, and risk management decisions.
Manage currency and market risk exposure
Assess which currencies are most vulnerable during periods of stress to support hedging strategies and risk mitigation.
Benefits
- Identify risks before they materialise. Detect where vulnerabilities are building using predictive indicators that provide early warning signals ahead of potential crises.
- Benchmark risks consistently. Compare sovereign, FX, and banking sector risks across 166 countries and over time within a single, consistent framework.
- Tailor risk assessment to your needs. Create bespoke risk scores using custom weights aligned with your specific exposures, portfolios, or internal risk frameworks.
Why Oxford Economics?
Predictive risk indicators
Our indicators are developed through back-testing against historical crises and incorporate forward-looking macroeconomic and financial data, enabling you to identify vulnerabilities early.
Transparent and rigorous methodologies
Our framework is fully documented, with risk scores built from clearly defined indicators and weights. This provides full visibility into what drives each score and ensures results can withstand internal and external scrutiny.
Customisable risk scores
Users can adjust weights and construct their own risk measures, enabling analysis that reflects specific exposures and priorities.
Independent perspective
Our risk analysis is grounded in Oxford Economics’ independent economic view, providing an unbiased benchmark to complement credit ratings and support risk management decisions.
Latest insights
Request a free trial
Complete the form and we will contact you to set up your free trial. Please note that trials are only available for qualified users.
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