Asia Chip Export Index May 2026: From consumer cycles to compute demand

The Oxford Economics Asia Chip Export Index (CEI) aggregates monthly integrated circuits exports data in both value and volume terms for key Asian economies, providing an early indicator of whether the global chip cycle is approaching a peak or a trough.

March 2026 value

28.3% ↑

CEI Volume Growth

80.7% ↑

CEI Value Growth

Click here to view the underlying data in more detail

Our proprietary Asia Chip Export Index surged in March, by 80.7% y/y in value and by 28.3% y/y in volume. The solid performance has helped decouple regional trade from external headwinds, including the Middle East conflict, potential energy bottlenecks, and tightening private credit conditions.

• The widening gap between Asia’s chip exports in value and volume terms has reached a historical high, reflecting significant pricing power in advanced chips supported by a healthy order pipeline. Persistent compute demand has become the main engine of regional export growth.
• One notable change behind this shift is that, over the past two decades, Asia’s tech cycle has largely been driven by the replacement cycle for consumer devices such as laptops, smartphones, and gaming consoles. However, the current tech cycle which started in late 2024, has been increasingly driven by AI compute demand. This makes the cycle less directly independent on household income and discretionary spending and more closely tied to cloud capex, enterprise AI adoption, and compute usage.
• Despite global macro uncertainty, this change provides a durable tailwind for Asia’s exports. Based on the estimates and guidance of major hyperscalers and Asian tech manufacturers, we expect AI-related demand to continue to be strong through this year, adding 10ppts–15ppts to Asian export growth.

Download our report to learn more about the turning points in Asia’s tech cycle.

Methodology: How we construct the Asia Chip Export Index

Asia sits at the heart of the global semiconductor supply chain. Of global semiconductor production capacity and supplies of key materials, 75% is concentrated in Asia. More notably, for the chips under 10-nanometres that are required to execute advanced AI functions, nearly all fabrication capacity is located in Asia.

Asia Chip Export Index is constructed by aggregating the monthly integrated circuits (IC; the key component of AI technology) exports data of specific Asian economies. These economies include Taiwan, South Korea, mainland China, Japan, and Singapore. We handpicked these economies based on several considerations. First, all these economies are at the front end of the AI supply chain, making them a forward indicator for the AI industry as they lead other electronic exporters in the region. Second, these economies consistently release their exports data ahead of the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS)’s world semiconductor sales and regional peers’ export data releases. This offers an early indication of regional trade performance.

Note: As most Asian economies play significant roles in multiple processes in the semiconductor supply chain, the visualization only illustrates the general characteristics of each Asian economy.

How we can help

At Oxford Economics, we deliver:

• Forecasts and insights on countries, industries, cities and technology spending across Asia.
• Scenario analysis to help you quantify risks from trade policy, geopolitical tensions and shifting demand.
• Custom research and advisory to support your strategy in navigating the semiconductor cycle and managing your supply chain.