Higher US gas prices boost odds of a Democratic sweep
Since our last midterms update in early September, Democrats have become favored to win back the House of Representatives and the Senate, rather than just the House.
The odds of a Democratic sweep in the midterms on November 3 continue to rise. Our baseline forecast has long called for a divided government after the midterms, but Democrats flipping both chambers of Congress would raise the probability of downside risks from trade and geopolitical policy and increase the chance of a deficit-financed expansion of federal spending.
Democratic candidates lead in all eight competitive Senate races. In recent days, Republicans have slightly reversed some of the Democrats’ earlier polling momentum, which slowed this month. With Kansas emerging as an unexpected tossup, Democrats have more paths to a Senate majority, even if the party falls short in Michigan or Minnesota.
Democrats are still cruising to a House takeover. High inflation, weak consumer confidence, and a lack of voter enthusiasm are creating a challenging backdrop for House Republicans. Historically, the party that suffers an enthusiasm deficit loses the House popular vote.
