Research Briefing | Jul 1, 2022

Lockdowns hammer consumer sectors in Shanghai and others

The short-term outlook for China’s major cities has deteriorated further since our last release in March. While the global surge in inflation is not being felt to any significant extent in China, the Omicron variant has led to more widespread and longer lockdowns—hammering consumer spending and the activity of the most vulnerable, consumer-reliant, sectors.

What you will learn:

  • We expect that Shanghai, which has just exited the country’s most severe lockdown since Wuhan’s in 2020, will record a decline in GDP in 2022, while Beijing will see no growth.
  • Dozens of cities have experienced some form of lockdown, either partially or city-wide since the start of the year. Their consumer sectors have been the most impacted during these periods.
  • Manufacturing has also been hit, but experience shows that helping the sector to recover is often prioritised by government.

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