Our Cross Asset framework has improved in January and now signals an overweight stance on risk assets vs safe assets....
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Displaying 1 to 20 of 621 results
We remain modestly risk-on as our above-consensus view on US growth this year still favours risk assets over bonds.
Research Briefing
The latest results point to a broad-based decline in US profit margins in Q4, reversing a recovery in Q3. We...
This study investigates how Spain’s ageing workforce should be seen as an antidote to financial shocks and an ingredient for...
Research Briefing
After the sharp falls in eurozone inflation recently, a series of rate cuts this year by the European Central Bank...
Research Briefing
The odds of a recession have declined over the past several months because of a strong labor market, a deceleration...
Research Briefing
Surprisingly, the rate hiking cycle in the US has not been accompanied by a spike in financial distress. This partly...
Research Briefing
We think US high-yield spreads will trade at or below 400 bps throughout this year. Upward revisions to our US...
Research Briefing
Our risk sentiment indicator is now in extreme optimism territory and suggests that equities may be at risk of a...
Research Briefing
We were a little surprised that Fed officials had not pushed back harder against market expectations for aggressive rate cuts...
he Q4 update of our IFRS9 and CECL scenarios services paints a more pessimistic view of the balance of risks...
Research Briefing
We are unconvinced that recent measures mark a turning point in China's housing downturn, just as we were cautious of...
Research Briefing
Inflation will likely decelerate in 2024 as the impact of imported inflation wanes. We expect the Bank of Japan will...
Research Briefing
We think risk assets will underperform in 2024. We map out the implications of our key 2024 global macro themes...
Research Briefing
Growth in most LatAm economies will be below consensus. Economic momentum has surprised to the upside through most of 2023,...
Research Briefing
With the US Fed expected to remain on hold for a prolonged period, rate decisions in Asia are likely to...
Research Briefing
The dollar will continue to be supported by a high carry and the relative resilience of the US economy. Even...
Research Briefing
We expect widespread declines in inflation and interest rates in 2024 across advanced economies. A key differentiator, however, is that...
Research Briefing
In our latest forecast, we removed the mild recession from our baseline and now anticipate a prolonged period of below-trend...
Research Briefing
The relative resilience of G7 output in the face of aggressive rate hikes is partly due to the surprising strength...
