CECL Services

Oxford Economics' solution for projecting credit losses under the CECL accounting standards.

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With over 35 years of independent forecasting and risk analysis experience, we are uniquely placed to calculate expected credit losses under the CECL accounting standards.

Bespoke scenarios for CECL

We provide an unbiased view of the forward-looking distribution and associated probabilities for the macroeconomic outlook for the United States, all 50 states and metro areas.

Baseline, upside and downside macroeconomic scenarios

Spanning the probability distribution of forecasts and covering the expected lifetime of assets.

Regular updates

Scenarios are updated quarterly to reflect emerging risks and changes to the base case.

Extensive reporting

Detailed changes from the last set of scenarios based on our analysis of current trends and risks.

Comprehensive variable coverage

Macroeconomic and financial variable outputs cover the key drivers of impairment. Fully consistent scenario results available for all US States and Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs).

CECL scenario service

Discover more about our methodology, our approach and the clientele of our service

What is our methodology?

The methodology used to construct these forward-looking distributions is similar to that of major central banks when assessing the risks around their central projections.

Based on these robust distributions, we derive coherent economic scenarios along with their probability. Crucially, our approach ensures that the only changes to scenarios from quarter to quarter are due to a transparent assessment of emerging or receding risks.

What is our modelling approach?

At the centre of our approach is our renowned Global Economic Model, which integrates individual country models through global assumptions about trade volume and prices, competitiveness, interest and exchange rates, capital flows and commodity prices.

The model’s unique open-architecture framework enables us to assess the impacts of adverse scenarios on economic indicators and a range of asset classes.

What are our endorsements?

Central Banks have used the Global Economic Model for stress tests published by a large number of financial authorities around the world.

Contact us

If you would like to find out more about our services, please fill in the form and let us know a bit more about you and what you’re looking for. A member of the team will be in touch with you as soon as possible.

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