With over 35 years of independent forecasting and risk analysis experience, we are uniquely placed to calculate expected credit losses under the CECL accounting standards.
Bespoke scenarios for CECL
We provide an unbiased view of the forward-looking distribution and associated probabilities for the macroeconomic outlook for the United States, all 50 states and metro areas.
Baseline, upside and downside macroeconomic scenarios
Spanning the probability distribution of forecasts and covering the expected lifetime of assets.
Scenarios are updated quarterly to reflect emerging risks and changes to the base case.
Detailed changes from the last set of scenarios based on our analysis of current trends and risks.
Comprehensive variable coverage
Macroeconomic and financial variable outputs cover the key drivers of impairment. Fully consistent scenario results available for all US States and Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs).
CECL scenario service
Discover more about our methodology, our approach and the clientele of our service
What is our methodology?
The methodology used to construct these forward-looking distributions is similar to that of major central banks when assessing the risks around their central projections.
Based on these robust distributions, we derive coherent economic scenarios along with their probability. Crucially, our approach ensures that the only changes to scenarios from quarter to quarter are due to a transparent assessment of emerging or receding risks.
What is our modelling approach?
At the centre of our approach is our renowned Global Economic Model, which integrates individual country models through global assumptions about trade volume and prices, competitiveness, interest and exchange rates, capital flows and commodity prices.
The model’s unique open-architecture framework enables us to assess the impacts of adverse scenarios on economic indicators and a range of asset classes.
What are our endorsements?
Central Banks have used the Global Economic Model for stress tests published by a large number of financial authorities around the world.
Resources and events
Positive signs for UK economy in Q4 look to have proved short-lived
Credit conditions still favourable but on the move
Why Canada needs a 10%-15% house price correction
Africa Country Insight: Ethiopia
Air travel recovery to resume in 2022 post-Omicron
UK Outlook: How many times will the MPC hike in 2022?
Has Asia’s inflation peaked?
The transformation of Japan from a goods to capital exporter
Credit where credit’s due for EM unconventional policies
If you would like to find out more about our services, please fill in the form and let us know a bit more about you and what you’re looking for. A member of the team will be in touch with you as soon as possible.
By submitting this form you agree to be contacted by Oxford Economics about its products and services. We will never share your details with third parties, and you can unsubscribe at any time.
Sign up to our Resource Hub to download the latest and most popular reports.