UK Outlook: How many times will the MPC hike in 2022?
Though the impact of Omicron looks set to be small and short-lived, the UK economy faces strong headwinds from high inflation and tighter fiscal and monetary policy. In this webinar we will consider how these headwinds will impact on the growth outlook and assess whether markets are correct in anticipating a very aggressive policy response from the BoE.
Andrew Goodwin | Associate Director
Andrew Goodwin is an Associate Director in our Macro & Investor Services team, where he is responsible for our UK macroeconomic forecast. Andrew contributes regular articles to a number of our publications and also edits the quarterly UK Economic Outlook. He regularly commentates on the UK economic outlook in the print and broadcast media.
Is sterling in the midst of a sell-off or a full-blown crisis?
Policy announcements are coming thick and fast in the UK at the moment and have been greeted with the most significant sell-off in UK assets in decades. Is this a case of markets overreacting or have the UK public finances been put on an unsustainable footing? Will the Bank of England react to the fall in sterling or are markets setting themselves up to be disappointed? We will set out our views on all these topics and set out the conditions under which we think this volatility will subside.Find Out More
Pre-emptive debt restructuring: a viable scenario for fragile African sovereigns?
The expiry of Covid-19-related support coupled with a surge in the goods import bill has exacerbated pressure on external trade positions for various African sovereigns. We see headwinds intensifying from 2023 onwards in the form of a deepening drought in East Africa, populist-leaning policies aimed at appeasing voter frustrations, large redemptions of external public debt facilities, and moral hazard. The risk profile is fragmented but a common thread can be found across Africa: sovereigns face an uphill battle in meeting the projected external funding requirements. With the risks of disorderly default on the rise and informed by the Zambian blueprint, we investigate the case for pre-emptive debt restructuring for fiscally fragile nations including Egypt, Ghana, and Kenya.Find Out More