The transformation of Japan from a goods to capital exporter
In the past decade, Japan has transformed itself from a goods to capital exporter, which has significant implications for its external balance, corporate profits, and FX markets. While the demographic outlook suggests that Japan will continue to accumulate foreign assets in the coming decades, there are challenges ahead to further improve the rate of return on investments. Navigating the evolution of the rivalry between the US and China and the impact of climate change will present key challenges to maintaining profitable FDI in Asia.
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Head of Japan Economics
Head of Japan Economics
Shigeto Nagai | Head of Japan Economics
Shigeto joined Oxford from the Bank of Japan, where he was previously Director-General of the BoJ’s International Department, contributing to the BoJ’s official views on the global economy at its Monetary Policy Meetings, as well as leading the BoJ’s liaison with other institutions across the world, including the governments and central banks of key economies and international financial institutions. Shigeto’s career at the BoJ included senior positions as General Manager for Europe, Associate Director-General in the Monetary Affairs Department, and Director and Head of Global Research. In addition to his expertise in global research, he also has extensive experience in foreign reserve management and central bank cooperation in Asia. He was seconded to the IMF in Washington DC from 1993 to 1996 as a member of the Fund’s economics staff. Shigeto holds an MA in International Relations from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University in the United States and a BA in Economics from the University of Tokyo.
Pre-emptive debt restructuring: a viable scenario for fragile African sovereigns?
The expiry of Covid-19-related support coupled with a surge in the goods import bill has exacerbated pressure on external trade positions for various African sovereigns. We see headwinds intensifying from 2023 onwards in the form of a deepening drought in East Africa, populist-leaning policies aimed at appeasing voter frustrations, large redemptions of external public debt facilities, and moral hazard. The risk profile is fragmented but a common thread can be found across Africa: sovereigns face an uphill battle in meeting the projected external funding requirements. With the risks of disorderly default on the rise and informed by the Zambian blueprint, we investigate the case for pre-emptive debt restructuring for fiscally fragile nations including Egypt, Ghana, and Kenya.Find Out More
Positioning for a shallow recession
We expect Q4 to be as challenging for markets as 2022 has been thus far. In our autumn webinar, our strategists Javier Corominas and Daniel Grosvenor discuss key global macro themes, including, why we believe yields will soon peak even as real rates have risen, why equities are still poised for a turbulent period, and how credit will outperform other risk assets. As we move into 2023 we see increased opportunities for investors as policy differentiation takes hold and economic performance varies across markets, geographies and thus asset classes.Find Out More