Markets appear to be increasingly converging with our forecast that the Bank of Japan will abolish its negative interest rate policy at the April meeting, but views diverge on whether any other policy adjustments will accompany the end of NIRP.
Jiawen Cui
House prices increased in all but a handful of metros in Q4 2023 as indicated by their Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) purchase-only house price indexes. However, the quarterly growth rates of the indexes decelerated in Q4 compared to Q3.
Our view remains that the most severe risks in commercial real estate are concentrated in the office sector, as it continues to deal with the pandemic-induced structural shift of increased remote and hybrid work.
In this infographic, we present the themes that are crucial to location decisioning in 2024 and pinpoint potential bright spots.
Overall, the downturn in the property sector is much less severe than in some previous cycles, especially for residential property. This is good news for growth. Still, property sector risks haven’t gone away yet, especially in the troubled commercial real estate (CRE) area.
Reaching net zero carbon emissions by 2050 would likely have a larger impact on economic activity initially in ASEAN5 countries than more gradual decarbonisation. But our modelling suggests the gap would narrow in later years and turn positive in most places approaching 2050.
We project Japan’s services trade balance will remain in deficit over the coming years as a trend increase in the import of digital-related services will outweigh a rising travel services surplus that has been driven by inbound tourists.
We think that global real estate investment trust (REIT) prices will continue to grow in H1 on the expectation that a soft landing will sustain income growth and underlying asset values will find a floor.
Chinese outbound travel is well on the path to recovery. Domestic travel recovered to pre-pandemic levels in 2023 and we expect growth to continue in line with continued consumer demand.
The commercial real estate landscape has undergone considerable changes due to the recent surge in interest rates and emerging funding gaps. We think opportunities are likely to build over the year as debt maturity volumes intensify.
The Bank of Japan left both short-term and long-term policy rates unchanged at Tuesday’s meeting as widely expected. The BoJ was unlikely to change policy this time given the lack of clear evidence on Spring Negotiation pay rises, based on recent comments by the Governor.
Despite talk of deglobalisation, a quantitative analysis of intermediate goods show global supply chains have continued to expand in the last five years. Amid a volatile world economy, swiftly evolving supply chains are minting new winners and losers in global trade.
The beer sector makes a sizeable contribution to GDP and employment in lower income countries. Our latest study explores the structure of the beer sector and consumption patterns in these economies, before estimating how the sector’s economic footprint could grow if consumption levels rose.
Chinese outbound travel finally restarted in 2023. This re-opening was keenly anticipated by global destinations, given the significance of China as an outbound market. Chinese outbound travel will stride further towards recovery in 2024.
Growth in the main economic indicators (GDP, employment, and consumer spending) is likely to be weaker in 2024 than in 2023 for most cities around the world. And a recurring theme for debate will be where cities sit within their national economic cycles.
The US machine tool industry has navigated through volatile markets in recent years. While the number of new orders has come off its high point, they remain well above pre-pandemic levels, with producer inventories now reflecting a more normal operating environment.
Ahead of this spring’s Two Sessions, we expect officials to realistically stake their growth target at around 4.5% in 2024 – a more sustainable, though likely still above-potential, pace than in 2023.
Our view is that the flurry of elections across Asia this year generally do not look like high-risk events for investors.
The US has come out of the pandemic in better shape than China with GDP above pre-pandemic forecasts, whereas China has struggled in the face of structural issues like the property slump. Slower growth means China’s economy is now unlikely to match the size of the US economy until the mid-2030s and living standards will remain well below those in the US.
A plunge in consumer spending in 2022-23 has been a key factor behind the poor performance of the Czech economy. A recovery in consumption hinges on households normalising their elevated savings rate. We think this will be a gradual process, closely tied to monetary policy normalisation.
