Events and Webinars

We run a worldwide programme of insightful conferences, roundtables, webinars and podcasts presented by our economic experts.

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Webinar
Will lower inflation mean the MPC cuts rates faster?

with Andrew Goodwin and Edward Allenby | Online | February 15, 2024

The UK inflation outlook has been transformed by steep falls in oil and gas prices and a softening in core price pressures and we think there’s a good chance that inflation will be back at the 2% target in April. The case for loosening monetary policy looks strong, but will the MPC agree? In this webinar we look at how the inflation and monetary policy outlooks will evolve in 2024.

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Webinar
Global CRE key themes for 2024 – A year of transition

with Mark Unsworth and Nicholas Wilson | Online | January 30, 2024

Global GDP growth and inflation will slow in 2024 and central banks will begin to pivot in H2. Commercial real estate (CRE) values are likely to be slow to recover but opportunities will start to emerge. In this real estate webinar we discuss the outlook and take you through our key themes for the year ahead.

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Webinar
ETC tourism trends and prospects: Q4 2023

with Chloe Parkins, Dave Goodger and Menno Van IJseel | Online | January 25, 2024

Tourism Economics will provide an overview of the latest tourism sector trends and outlook in Europe. This will include how international travel performed towards the end of 2023, with more countries verging on recovery. Further to this, we will delve into the prospects for recovery from China and other longer-haul markets.

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Webinar
Why tourism will continue to grow in 2024: key themes to watch in the year ahead

with Helen McDermott and Dave Goodger | Online | December 14, 2023

There are reasons for continued optimism as we look ahead into 2024 for the travel sector, and we retain a bullish outlook despite several clear risk factors. Within this webinar we will explore the emerging trends that will drive continued growth in demand and travel spending, how this will differ from prior years, as well as discussing some of the key risks to this outlook.

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Webinar
Eurozone Key themes 2024 – Fragile recovery will gain impulse

with Tomas Dvorak | Online | December 7, 2023

After grinding to a halt in 2023, we expect the cogs of the eurozone economy to start slowly turning again in 2024, gaining more momentum as the year goes on. Our key call is for faster disinflation, which together with a weak growth outlook will prompt the ECB to normalise policy earlier and more forcefully than what the markets are expecting. This should in turn help to usher in stronger consumption growth. But there are potential headwinds aplenty – looming fiscal consolidations, possible supply shocks or hysteresis effects holding activity back.

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Webinar
US Key Themes for 2024

with Innes McFee and Michael Pearce | Online | December 4, 2023

Our final US webinar of the year looks at what we can expect to see in 2024. We expect a material slowdown in the US economy in the next couple of quarters to give way to a modest acceleration in GDP growth in H2. Inflation will continue to fall but at a much more gradual pace than in 2023 driven by a gradual loosening of labor market conditions, prompting the Fed to start easing policy towards the end of the year. Beyond these headlines three themes will be key to shaping the economy in 2024: fiscal policy as a key driver of the outlook; credit and political uncertainty; and the economy will remain highly desynchronized.

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Webinar
Global Valve and Actuator

with Kiran Ahmed and Jeremy Leonard | Online | November 30, 2023

In partnership with the British Valve and Actuator Association, the latest edition of our annual Global Valve and Actuator Market Outlook highlights that across most markets, fundamental demand conditions for valve and actuator consumption remain soft. Tight monetary policy will continue to weigh on economic activity, limiting activity in valve end-use markets and investment spending more generally.

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Webinar
Monetary policy puzzles

with Arup Raha | Online | November 15, 2023

There is significant uncertainty as Asian economies approach the new year. There are two wars being fought, China faces structural headwinds, and we are not fully sure of the damage to the balance sheets of firms and households from Covid. Plus, higher oil prices, a stronger US dollar, and high US bond yields are restricting what policymakers in Asia can do. We try and wade through all this and arrive at the most likely outlook for Asian economies.

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Webinar
Air Passenger Forecasts Webinar: Growth outlook defies macroeconomic challenges

with Stephen Rooney and Rachel Yuting Fan | Online | September 27, 2023

Despite a subdued macroeconomic backdrop, air passenger traffic growth has remained steady through to July. Further, ticket sales indicate sustained demand in the months ahead. In this webinar we will discuss the industry's recent performance, its short and long-run prospects, and the underlying macroeconomic climate. Potential risks which could derail the outlook will also be explored.

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Webinar
US Construction Outlook- Cost Increases & Labour Shortages

with Adrian Hart and Nicholas Fearnley | Online | September 26, 2023

2023 has been a challenging time for the US construction market as input cost inflation and labour shortages weighed on activity levels. Despite the near-term challenges, the outlook remains positive. In this webinar Dr Nicholas Fearnley, Matthew Mercer, and Adrian Hart will discuss the outlook and key risks for construction activity in the US, and answer the following questions?2023 has been a challenging time for the US construction market as input cost inflation and labour shortages weighed on activity levels. Despite the near-term challenges, the outlook remains positive. In this webinar Dr Nicholas Fearnley, Matthew Mercer, and Adrian Hart will discuss the outlook and key risks for construction activity in the US, and answer the following questions? • How does the outlook vary across states and metros? • When will residential construction activity rebound? • What do construction industry capacity constraints mean for the delivery of the IIJA? • What are the risks and implications of higher interest rates and construction costs? • What is our outlook for construction costs?

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Webinar
Euro area outlook: flirting with a recession

with Daniel Kral | Online | September 18, 2023

After a strong first half of the year, the eurozone area economy is hitting the brakes. Incoming data point to a material risk of a recession in the second half of 2023, amid strong headwinds. In this webinar, we’ll explore the near-term outlook, including the divergence among the largest euro area economies, and what this means for the European Central Bank.

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Webinar
Industrial outlook remains gloomy for now

with Nico Palesch and Sean Metcalfe | Online | September 14, 2023

High-frequency indicators show that economic activity is weakening through the second half of 2023, and that industry is performing worse than the broader economy. The impact of past policy tightening and the reduced availability of credit is dampening activity and contributing to a deteriorating near-term outlook for investment spending, which is disproportionately impacting manufacturing and other investment-facing sectors of the economy. While supply chains have normalised to a large degree, which is contributing to easing inflation and recovering production in backlog-affected sectors, headwinds to industrial activity are shifting partly from the supply to the demand side. Nonetheless, there are good reasons to expect a relatively shallow downturn in industrial activity as opposed to a total collapse. In this webinar, we will provide a comprehensive update of the global industrial outlook and account for the divergent fortunes across the different sectors that make up the economy.

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Webinar
UK Macro – Inflation and BoE outlook

with Andrew Goodwin and Edward Allenby | Online | August 17, 2023

May’s downside surprise for inflation caused markets to rein in their expectations for the future path for Bank Rate. But we’re not out of the woods yet, with our recent research highlighting why the second round effects of higher energy prices are likely to prove more persistent than the initial direct and indirect impact. In this webinar we react to the August MPC meeting and assess the outlook for inflation and interest rates.

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Webinar
China at the half-year mark: Is the glass half empty or half full?

with Lloyd Chan and Louise Loo | Online | August 16, 2023

The near-term macro outlook on China looks especially foggy. There’s more stimulus but not the ones we’re used to. More property weakness but a hard-landing still appears remote. New growth areas but the regulatory environment remains cautious. Join us as we discuss the implications of recent developments to our outlook.

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Webinar
Global pump market outlook and implications of the energy transition

with Andy Logan and Jeremy Leonard | Online | July 27, 2023

The global pump market faces a challenging near-term future amid high interest rates and weakness in capital spending. But the impact of the energy transition will bring even larger structural shifts that will create winners and losers across industrial sectors. Join us for an overview of the market, drawing from our recently released Global Pump Market Outlook report as well as our Industry Climate Service.

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Webinar
Nearshoring – China’s loss is not (yet) Mexico’s gain

with Gabriel Sterne and Joan Domene | Online | July 20, 2023

Media frenzy over nearshoring in Mexico has failed to provide an accurate picture. Mexico is the best-positioned emerging market to gain from global trade dislocation but that does not mean it has seen the greatest benefits up to date. Asian economies and Canada have grown their share of US imports faster than Mexico since the US-China trade decoupling started five years ago. In this webinar, we dissect the visible effects of nearshoring in Mexico’s exports and manufacturing sectors and the implications for the short-term economic outlook.

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Webinar
Consumer Outlook – Risks & Opportunities 2023/2024

with Florent Guillarme and Graeme Harrison | Online | June 27, 2023

In 2020, Covid triggered a shock to global consumer spending like we’ve only seen in war times. However, it also created conditions for a rebound through a saving cushion for households, even more for the wealthiest. So despite unprecedented inflation from 2022, particularly rising prices for non-discretionary items like energy and food, followed by unprecedented monetary tightening & raising rates, consumer spending in nominal terms (much less so in real or volume terms) has proved surprisingly resilient globally thanks to savings, strong GDP and nominal earnings, but also resilient stock markets, labour markets and wealth underpinned by the travel recovery too, but for how long and what are the Consumer turbulences to come ahead? The webinar will explore how Consumers will react from now, to the end of monetary tightening, with GDP and inflation weakening in Europe, the US and China and the with the effect of recent developments starting to bite more. It will cover the macro context (GDP, income, savings, earnings, inflation, labour market, interest rates and credit, confidence and government policy), including macro factors more relevant to the luxury sector (e.g. wealth and asset prices) and how different socio-economic groups are affected. It will also go into a deeper dive into the consumer sector (aggregate and a breakdown of consumer spend and retail sales in volume and value terms and into different goods and services products), trends in online vs in-store spending, the recovery in tourism spending and trends in income and price elasticity.

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Webinar
European Travel Trends & Outlook ahead of peak summer season

with Dave Goodger and Jennifer Iduh | Online | June 22, 2023

Both domestic and international travel rebounded in 2022 and has started 2023 strongly to return to very close to pre-pandemic levels of activity, on average. In this webinar we will explore the trends emerging for the peak summer months to understand whether full recovery is likely and which destinations and source markets will be driving growth. This will include a focus on air passenger data and trends, with a contribution from IATA as well as from ETC and the Tourism Economics team.

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Webinar
What next for commodity prices? Discussing the outlook amid slowing global growth

with Stephen Hare, Kiran Ahmed, Toby Whittington and Diego Cacciapuoti | Online | June 22, 2023

Initial optimism about demand, following China’s abrupt reopening has now given way to concerns amid tightening monetary policy in advanced economies and a lacklustre Chinese industrial recovery. We outline the implications for commodity markets and prices as well as risks to our baseline view.

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Webinar
China and India – shifting issues, shifting roles

with Alexandra Hermann and Louise Loo | Online | June 21, 2023

China’s population has peaked and its industrial engines have struggled despite this year’s reopening. The longer-term outlook is beset by meaningful structural headwinds, an uncertain regulatory policy, geopolitical tensions with the US. Enter India, a vast and young workforce has the potential to benefit from the ongoing supply chain diversification away from China. We provide our takes on the near- and medium-term outlooks for both economies and discuss how the two economic giants could both co-exist and compete in this new economic world order.

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