Industrial outlook remains gloomy for now
Date: Thursday 14 September 2023
High-frequency indicators show that economic activity is weakening through the second half of 2023, and that industry is performing worse than the broader economy. The impact of past policy tightening and the reduced availability of credit is dampening activity and contributing to a deteriorating near-term outlook for investment spending, which is disproportionately impacting manufacturing and other investment-facing sectors of the economy. While supply chains have normalised to a large degree, which is contributing to easing inflation and recovering production in backlog-affected sectors, headwinds to industrial activity are shifting partly from the supply to the demand side. Nonetheless, there are good reasons to expect a relatively shallow downturn in industrial activity as opposed to a total collapse. In this webinar, we will provide a comprehensive update of the global industrial outlook and account for the divergent fortunes across the different sectors that make up the economy.
Nico Palesch
Economist
+44 203 910 8000
Nico Palesch
Economist
London, United Kingdom
Nico is an Economist within Oxford Economics’ Global Industry Service where he is responsible for monitoring and forecasting developments in the transportation & logistics sector, writing industry-related reports and research notes on sector-specific and cross-sector themes and issues, overseeing and expressing the house-view on industrial developments in our monthly publications, and working on bespoke consulting projects.
Nico holds a BSc Joint Honours Political Science and Economics from the University of Ottawa and an MSc Economics from the London School of Economics and Political Science, achieved with distinction.
Sean Metcalfe
Lead Economist
+44 (0) 203 910 8111
Sean Metcalfe
Lead Economist
London, United Kingdom
Sean is a Lead Economist on the Industry team, where he forecasts the utility sector, helps shape the team’s views on the Global Industrial outlook and oversees the climate-related enhancements being made to the Global Industry Model.
Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Sean spent two years working for RBB Economics as a competition economist. At RBB he was involved in the economic assessment of competition cases across a range of industries, including antitrust investigations in the telecommunications sector.
Sean holds an MSc in Economics from the London School of Economics and a BSc in Economics from the University of York.
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