Industrial outlook remains gloomy for now
Date: Thursday 14 September 2023
Time: Global Sessions (EMEA, APAC and Americas sessions. See exact timings in the note section below)
High-frequency indicators show that economic activity is weakening through the second half of 2023, and that industry is performing worse than the broader economy. The impact of past policy tightening and the reduced availability of credit is dampening activity and contributing to a deteriorating near-term outlook for investment spending, which is disproportionately impacting manufacturing and other investment-facing sectors of the economy. While supply chains have normalised to a large degree, which is contributing to easing inflation and recovering production in backlog-affected sectors, headwinds to industrial activity are shifting partly from the supply to the demand side. Nonetheless, there are good reasons to expect a relatively shallow downturn in industrial activity as opposed to a total collapse. In this webinar, we will provide a comprehensive update of the global industrial outlook and account for the divergent fortunes across the different sectors that make up the economy.
Note: Please note that we will be holding one webinar each for APAC (10am HKT), EMEA (10am BST), and Americas (11am & 4pm EDT) friendly time zones. Can’t make it to any of the sessions? Feel free to register for any session and we will automatically share the recording with you 3 hours after the webinar has finished.
Private: Nico Palesch
London, United Kingdom
Nico is an assistant economist in the Industry team, where he works on the development of the industry forecast narrative, on industry-related reports and research notes related to sector-specific and macroeconomic themes and trends. He also produces forecasts and commentary on the transportation and logistics sector and works on bespoke industry consulting projects.
Previously Nico worked at the Bank of Canada in the Financial and Enterprise Risk Department for three years. This involved projects in the area of policy development around and analysis of the credit risks posed by the BoC’s counterparties, a post-Covid balance sheet risk assessment, a review of the internal financial risk framework, and development of the Bank’s strategy for climate-related financial disclosures. Nico holds an MSc Economics from the LSE, achieved with distinction, and a BSc Joint Honours Political Science and Economics from the University of Ottawa. Nico is fluent in English and in German.
+44 (0) 203 910 8111
London, United Kingdom
Sean is a Lead Economist on the Industry team, where he forecasts the utility sector, helps shape the team’s views on the Global Industrial outlook and oversees the climate-related enhancements being made to the Global Industry Model.
Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Sean spent two years working for RBB Economics as a competition economist. At RBB he was involved in the economic assessment of competition cases across a range of industries, including antitrust investigations in the telecommunications sector.
Sean holds an MSc in Economics from the London School of Economics and a BSc in Economics from the University of York.
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