Webinar

Consumer Outlook – Risks & Opportunities 2023/2024

In 2020, Covid triggered a shock to global consumer spending like we’ve only seen in war times. However, it also created conditions for a rebound through a saving cushion for households, even more for the wealthiest. So despite unprecedented inflation from 2022, particularly rising prices for non-discretionary items like energy and food, followed by unprecedented monetary tightening & raising rates, consumer spending in nominal terms (much less so in real or volume terms) has proved surprisingly resilient globally thanks to savings, strong GDP and nominal earnings, but also resilient stock markets, labour markets and wealth underpinned by the travel recovery too, but for how long and what are the Consumer turbulences to come ahead?

The webinar explores how Consumers will react from now, to the end of monetary tightening, with GDP and inflation weakening in Europe, the US and China and the with the effect of recent developments starting to bite more.

It covers the macro context (GDP, income, savings, earnings, inflation, labour market, interest rates and credit, confidence and government policy), including macro factors more relevant to the luxury sector (e.g. wealth and asset prices) and how different socio-economic groups are affected. It also goes into a deeper dive into the consumer sector (aggregate and a breakdown of consumer spend and retail sales in volume and value terms and into different goods and services products), trends in online vs in-store spending, the recovery in tourism spending and trends in income and price elasticity.

Florent Guillarme

Associate Director, Business Development

+33 (0) 1 78 91 50 52

Florent Guillarme

Associate Director, Business Development

Paris, France

Florent graduated from a Master degree at IAE Bordeaux while he holds a BA in Business from South Korea (Hallym University). He first gains some experience developing a start-up among the water industry in Mexico and then by planning the strategic development and selling services for the TV industry in Brazil before joining Oxford Economics.

Graeme Harrison

Director of EMEA, Macro Consulting

+44 (0) 28 9263 5417

Graeme Harrison

Director of EMEA, Macro Consulting

London, United Kingdom

Graeme Harrison is the Director of EMEA, Macro Consulting. Previously Graeme was Associate Director in Oxford Economics’ Economic Impact and Cities Team. Graeme has managed large-scale macroeconomic modelling and economic consulting projects across the globe for public and corporate clients such as the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, the Abu Dhabi Department for Economic Development, Indonesia’s state planning agency Bappenas, the UK Department for International Development and the Big Four professional services firms.

Graeme also currently manages Oxford Economics’ African and Middle East Cities Forecasting Service and led the development of the Global Cities Forecasting Service covering the world’s largest 750+ cities. Graeme’s areas of specialism include macroeconomic model building, international development and education & skills.

Graeme has also previously acted as a macroeconomic technical advisor to finance ministries in Uganda and South Sudan. Prior to joining Oxford Economics in 2006, Graeme spent two years as a Senior Economist working for the Ugandan Ministry of Finance through the distinguished Overseas Development Institute (ODI) Fellowship Programme.

Graeme graduated from Queen’s University in 2002 with a first-class honours degree in Finance and received the Financial Times award for outstanding performance. Graeme later obtained an MSc Finance with distinction, also from Queen’s.

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