US Key Themes for 2024

Date: Monday 4 December 2023

Our final US webinar of the year looks at what we can expect to see in 2024. We expect a material slowdown in the US economy in the next couple of quarters to give way to a modest acceleration in GDP growth in H2. Inflation will continue to fall but at a much more gradual pace than in 2023 driven by a gradual loosening of labor market conditions, prompting the Fed to start easing policy towards the end of the year. Beyond these headlines three themes will be key to shaping the economy in 2024: fiscal policy as a key driver of the outlook; credit and political uncertainty; and the economy will remain highly desynchronized.

Innes McFee
Innes McFee

Managing Director of Macro and Investor Services

+44 (0) 203 910 8028

Innes McFee

Innes McFee

Managing Director of Macro and Investor Services

London, United Kingdom

Innes McFee is the Managing Director of Macro and Investor Services, based in London. Innes oversees the activities of the Macro & Investor Services teams globally, including the Global Macro Forecast and Global Macro Service.

Innes joined Oxford Economics in 2017 after 6 years at Lloyds Banking Group as a Senior Economist. At Lloyds Innes was responsible for the economic scenarios underpinning the Group’s internal planning and stress testing; analysis of key risks; and developing Lloyds’ approach to multiple economic scenarios for IFRS9. In addition, Innes’ role included developing the Group’s capability in modelling macroeconomic fundamentals and UK banking markets and advising the Group Corporate Treasury on financial market developments.

Prior to joining Lloyds Innes was an Economic Advisor at HM Treasury where his roles included management of the UK’s foreign currency reserves; US economist; and G20 macroeconomic policy advisor. Innes has a first class undergraduate degree in Economics from the University of Durham and a MSc in Economics from Warwick University.

Michael Pearce

Deputy Chief US Economist

+1 (347) 756 6500

Michael Pearce

Deputy Chief US Economist

New York, United States

Michael Pearce is the Deputy Chief US Economist based in New York City, sharing responsibility for forecasting the US economy and monetary policy. He has a particular focus on the US consumer and inflation. Before joining Oxford Economics, Michael worked for the Treasury in the UK, and was a senior member of the US economics team at Capital Economics for more than a decade, and he lived and worked in the UK, US, and Switzerland during that time. He has a masters degree in economic history from the London School of Economics, and a bachelors degree in economics from University College London.

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