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Webinar
Economics of a second Trump presidency

with Ryan Sweet and Bernard Yaros | Online | April 29, 2024

Continuing our series of analyses on the 2024 election, we modeled the macroeconomic impact of a second Donald Trump presidency. If the former president wins on Election Day, he will most likely return to the White House with Republican majorities in the House of Representatives and Senate. Assuming full Republican control of government after the 2024 election, we constructed two scenarios that bookend a range of outcomes for the US economy. This webinar will discuss the results of the Trump scenarios, including for inflation, GDP, monetary policy, trade and immigration.

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Event
Global Economic Outlook Conference: Frankfurt and Munich

In-Person | April 25, 2024

There now is a broad consensus that in 2024 the world economy will have a soft economic landing and that easing inflation will allow central banks to cut rates soon. Here we explore some of the key themes and risks around the global economic growth and inflation outlook for this year and beyond, along with the broader implications for the Nordic economies.

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Event
Zurich: Global Economic Outlook Conference

In-Person | April 25, 2024

There now is a broad consensus that in 2024 the world economy will have a soft economic landing and that easing inflation will allow central banks to cut rates soon. Here we explore some of the key themes and risks around the global economic growth and inflation outlook for this year and beyond, along with the broader implications for the Nordic economies.

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Webinar
Post-correction real estate opportunities on the horizon?

with Abigail Rosenbaum | Online | April 17, 2024

Solid US GDP growth and lower inflation in 2024 will lead the Fed to begin cutting rates mid-year. Rate cuts should stabilize investor confidence and bring the commercial real estate (CRE) pricing correction to an end this year. Once a recovery is underway in 2025, opportunities will start to emerge. In this real estate webinar, using our Relative Return Index (RRI), we highlight risk-adjusted investment opportunities for Global CRE in 2024 and beyond.

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Webinar
What the pandemic has taught us about inflation

with Ben May and Kiki Sondh | Online | April 16, 2024

When inflation first rose up in 2021, we argued it wasn't the start of a shift to a higher, more volatile inflation regime. Despite the big spike since, we maintain this view. In this webinar we explore some of the inflation lessons from the pandemic and assess the extent to which we have entered a new era for inflation targeting.

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Webinar
Central and Eastern Europe: More uneven than ever?

with Mateusz Urban and Tomas Dvorak | Online | April 3, 2024

A wide gap in economic performance has opened in the usually homogenous CEE region. Poland, Romania and, to a lesser extent, Slovakia have been consistently outperforming their Czech and Hungarian peers. We expect this divergence to narrow only partially in the near term. The gap in growth permeates into other economic areas too – the outperformers have to contend with more persistent, demand-driven inflation, halting the plans to loosen historically tight monetary policy. Many of the CEE governments have also been unusually fiscally active. We’ll be exploring the diverging macro outlook for the CEE region and some strategy implications in this EM webinar.

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Webinar
Asset allocation perspectives in a stronger for longer environment

with Daniel von Ahlen | Online | March 28, 2024

Our cross-asset framework points to a constructive stance on the global cycle and we think risk assets will outperform over the next 6-12m even if rich valuations suggest the upside will likely be limited. We suspect that the risk that inflation will stabilise above the Fed's target in H2 is still under priced by bond markets and remain cautious on duration. We discuss why equities will continue to edge higher but the pace of returns is likely to slow, and we see greater return potential in other asset classes such as credit.

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Webinar
How a global soft landing is (almost) in view

with Ben May and Adam Slater | Online | March 19, 2024

We examine how the global economy has confounded most expectations over the last year with inflation falling back towards target without large output losses. We consider key factors behind this including developments in labour markets, financial stresses, energy prices and fiscal policies. We also look at lingering ‘hard landing’ risks and in which geographies they are most prominent.

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Webinar
Eurozone: On a slow path towards recovery

with Rory Fennessy | Online | March 18, 2024

While the worst may be over for the eurozone economy, the prospect of a quick revival in growth is limited. Activity should pick up stronger in the second half of 2024 as falling inflation supports real incomes and consumer spending, but more restrictive fiscal policy as government priorities shift from providing support to deficit reduction will drag on growth. We expect the ECB to commence with rate cuts in Q2, although growth won’t receive a boost until 2025.

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Webinar
Latin America Regional Outlook – Growth turns a corner as monetary policy eases

with Tim Hunter and Debora Reyna Garcia | Online | March 13, 2024

In this webinar, we will review the regional outlook for Latin America. Central banks have largely triumphed in taming high inflation, but at a cost to output. Prospects should improve in the second half of this year, but there are important growth stories to uncover across countries. Key to this will be consumer spending, which has shown varying degrees of resilience to the high interest rates of the past few years. We will also review our latest research, with a focus on the outlook for monetary policy. This will be key for markets, with Mexico yet to start easing whereas Chile nears the end of its cycle.

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Webinar
Global Scenarios: Inflation Victory?

with Benjamin Trevis and Jamie Thompson | Online | March 11, 2024

This webinar examines the key insights from our latest Global Scenarios Service. We examine the possibility that central banks signal victory in the battle against inflation and sharply cut policy rates this year, the risk to the global economy from ongoing shipping disruption in the Red Sea, and the latest findings from our regular Global Risk Surveys.

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Webinar
European Construction Outlook

with Nicholas Fearnley | Online | February 22, 2024

European construction activity remained resilient over 2023 despite the headwinds created by higher financing costs, input cost inflation and labour shortages. We generally expect this resilience to continue into 2024, although the outlook varies by country and sector. In this webinar Dr Nicholas Fearnley will discuss the outlook and key risks for construction activity in Europe, and answer the following questions: • How does the outlook vary across sectors and countries? • How do delays to NGEU funding affect the outlook? • When will the renovation wave take off? • What is the outlook for material construction costs? • What are the risks and implications of higher interest rates and construction costs?

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Webinar
Red Sea attacks are not an inflation gamechanger

with Ben May and Kiki Sondh | Online | February 21, 2024

We see the disruption to shipping in the Red Sea as more likely than not to last at least six months, implying that the associated rise in shipping costs will linger and move up the supply chain. While we expect the impact on CPI inflation to be small, it will take time before this becomes unambiguously clear. This uncertainty could ultimately prompt central banks to delay rate cuts to give themselves more information on the inflationary impacts. However, the Red Sea attacks are only one of many factors that policymakers will factor into their considerations – we still think rate cuts will commence around mid-2024.

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Webinar
Will lower inflation mean the MPC cuts rates faster?

with Andrew Goodwin and Edward Allenby | Online | February 15, 2024

The UK inflation outlook has been transformed by steep falls in oil and gas prices and a softening in core price pressures and we think there’s a good chance that inflation will be back at the 2% target in April. The case for loosening monetary policy looks strong, but will the MPC agree? In this webinar we look at how the inflation and monetary policy outlooks will evolve in 2024.

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Webinar
Global CRE key themes for 2024 – A year of transition

with Mark Unsworth and Nicholas Wilson | Online | January 30, 2024

Global GDP growth and inflation will slow in 2024 and central banks will begin to pivot in H2. Commercial real estate (CRE) values are likely to be slow to recover but opportunities will start to emerge. In this real estate webinar we discuss the outlook and take you through our key themes for the year ahead.

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Webinar
L’anno che verrà: prospettive economiche per il 2024

with Nicola Nobile and Paolo Grignani | Online | January 23, 2024

Quali prospettive per l’economia globale ed europea in questo nuovo anno? La disinflazione proseguirà innescando rapidamente un allentamento monetario, o la solidità dei mercati del lavoro continuerà a mettere pressioni sui salari spingendo le banche centrali a mantenere i tassi elevati? Il deterioramento delle dinamiche di crescita in corso anticipa una recessione più marcata o si tratta solamente di un soft landing?

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Webinar
Latin America Key Themes 2024 – Slower growth, but it’s not all bad news

with Joan Domene and Tim Hunter | Online | December 8, 2023

In this webinar, we present our key themes for Latin America in 2024. Firstly, while annual growth will be slower than in 2023 and even slower than consensus, quarterly data will reveal a more nuanced picture. Secondly, inflation will largely continue to cool faster than markets expect, but there are risks on the horizon. Thirdly, a faster decline of inflation will allow central banks to cut faster than markets expect. And lastly, most countries will slow fiscal consolidation efforts against the backdrop of manageable debt in the near term, but soaring borrowing costs create risks.

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Webinar
US Key Themes for 2024

with Innes McFee and Michael Pearce | Online | December 4, 2023

Our final US webinar of the year looks at what we can expect to see in 2024. We expect a material slowdown in the US economy in the next couple of quarters to give way to a modest acceleration in GDP growth in H2. Inflation will continue to fall but at a much more gradual pace than in 2023 driven by a gradual loosening of labor market conditions, prompting the Fed to start easing policy towards the end of the year. Beyond these headlines three themes will be key to shaping the economy in 2024: fiscal policy as a key driver of the outlook; credit and political uncertainty; and the economy will remain highly desynchronized.

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Webinar
Global: Key themes 2024 – Few opportunities in a gloomy landscape

with Ben May and Kiki Sondh | Online | December 1, 2023

Global GDP growth and inflation will slow in 2024 and central banks will begin to pivot in H2 – at least that seems to be the broad agreement among markets, policymakers, and forecasters. For the most part, we concur and have identified three key themes that we think will be key to the precise path that economies and financial markets take next year: Risks to the consensus growth view are skewed to the downside. Inflation trends will diverge more. Despite the gloom, some bright spots will emerge In this webinar we explore these three key themes in more detail

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