Red Sea attacks are not an inflation gamechanger

Date: 21 February 2024

We see the disruption to shipping in the Red Sea as more likely than not to last at least six months, implying that the associated rise in shipping costs will linger and move up the supply chain. While we expect the impact on CPI inflation to be small, it will take time before this becomes unambiguously clear. This uncertainty could ultimately prompt central banks to delay rate cuts to give themselves more information on the inflationary impacts. However, the Red Sea attacks are only one of many factors that policymakers will factor into their considerations – we still think rate cuts will commence around mid-2024.

Note: Can’t make it to any of the sessions? Feel free to register for any session and we will automatically share the recording with you 3 hours after the webinar has finished.

Ben May

Director, Macro Forecasting & Analysis

+44 (0) 203 910 8015

Ben May

Director, Macro Forecasting & Analysis

London, United Kingdom

Ben May is a Director of Global Macroeconomic Research at Oxford Economics and is involved in the production and presentation of the company’s global macroeconomic views, with a leading role in our coverage of the advanced economies. Ben joined Oxford Economics in April 2014. He has over 15 years’ experience as a macro economist in the public and private sector and has over a decade’s expertise covering the Eurozone economy.

Before joining the Global Macro team, Ben worked on the Eurozone team at Oxford Economics. In addition to his working covering broad Eurozone issues he was also responsible for research on the ECB and Germany. Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Ben spent over six years at Capital Economics and was responsible for the coverage of the southern Eurozone economies throughout the Eurozone crisis. Before that, he spent seven years at the Bank of England, working in three divisions of the Monetary Analysis area of the Bank, which provides research and analysis for the Monetary Policy Committee. Ben has a BSc in Economics with Statistics from the University of Bristol and an MSc in Economics from University College London.

Kiki Sondh

Economist

+44 (0) 203 910 8136

Kiki Sondh

Economist

London, United Kingdom

Kiki is a macroeconomist in the Global Macro team in London. She is responsible for producing macro research at a global level and managing the global macro forecast round. Previously Kiki worked on the Global Industry team, generating forecasts and providing narratives for the transportation and logistics sector. She was also engaged in various consultancy projects and industry research.

Prior to joining Oxford Economics in 2021, Kiki worked at the company in 2016 as part of her industrial placement year. During her 13-month internship, Kiki was responsible for macroeconomic forecasts for several countries and industry forecasts for the intermediate goods sector.

Kiki holds an MSc in Economics from the London School of Economics and Political Science and a BSc in Economics with Industrial Experience from the University of Exeter.

Back to Events

Related Services

Macro and Regulatory Scenarios

Our models, forecasts, and datasets can be customised to fit the unique needs of your organisation.

Find Out More
Nordic Macro Service - Helsinki
Nordic Macro Service

Track, analyse, and react to macro events and future trends in the Nordic region.

Find Out More
Aerial view of the city Cascavel, Parana, Brazil, Latin America
Latin America Macro Service

A complete service to help you track, analyse, and react to macro events and future trends across Latin America.

Find Out More
European cities - Rome
European Macro Service

A complete service to help executives track, analyse and react to macro events and future trends for the European region.

Find Out More