Webinar

US Economic Outlook – The Swirling Risks

1 October 2025 – 10.00am EST (New York)
online

Risks are swirling around the economy and this has caused the Federal Open Market Committee to become divided about the course of monetary policy next year.

Angst about the labour market are being prioritized by the Fed over inflation, for now. Monetary policy is a blunt instrument and it can’t address less labour supply that could be amplified by recent policy changes. Downside risks to labour market have become more threatening as the pass-through to consumer prices from tariffs is likely to intensify. On the upside, the economy will continue to reap the benefits of AI-related investment that shows no sign of slowing down.

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Speakers

Michael Pearce
Michael Pearce

Michael Pearce is the Deputy Chief US Economist based in New York City, sharing responsibility for forecasting the US economy and monetary policy. He has a particular focus on the US consumer and inflation. Before joining Oxford Economics, Michael worked for the Treasury in the UK, and was a senior member of the US economics team at Capital Economics for more than a decade, and he lived and worked in the UK, US, and Switzerland during that time. He has a masters degree in economic history from the London School of Economics, and a bachelors degree in economics from University College London.

Deputy Chief US Economist
Ryan Sweet
Ryan Sweet

Ryan Sweet is the Chief US Economist at Oxford Economics. He is responsible for forecasting and assessing the US macroeconomic outlook and how it will influence monetary policy and financial markets. Ryan is among the most accurate high-frequency forecasters of the U.S. economy, according to MarketWatch and Bloomberg LP.

Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Ryan led real-time economics at Moody’s Analytics and was a member of the U.S. macroeconomics team. He was also head of the firm’s monetary policy research, following actions by the Federal Reserve and examining its potential impact on the U.S. economy.

Ryan is an adjunct professor in the Economics and Finance Department at West Chester University of Pennsylvania. He received a master’s degree in finance from John’s Hopkins University, a master’s degree in economics from the University of Delaware, and a bachelor’s degree in economics from Washington College.

Chief US Economist
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1 October 2025
10:00am EST
(New York)
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