Sanele Mjikane 
Egypt’s inflation unexpectedly rose to 26.2% in August after five months of easing. The rise was driven by transportation prices which surged following cuts to fuel subsidies. We think the recent electricity price hikes will sustain upward pressure on inflation in the near-term, but still see it closing the year near 24%. The rise in inflation strengthens the odds that the central bank of Egypt will keep interest rates on hold until Q1 2025.
Our baseline forecast assumes generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) will boost eurozone GDP level by 1.4% over the next 15 years, largely via stronger labour productivity growth, and through investment and R&D spending into GenAI developments and applications. This will generate second-round gains via higher incomes and stronger consumer spending.
The Turkish economy slowed markedly to 2.5% year-on-year in Q2 2024, down from 5.3% in Q1, falling short of both our and market expectations.
Crude oil prices surged by around $2 on Monday, with Brent crude and WTI rising to $80.1 and $77.4 per barrel, respectively. This was mainly due to supply concerns prompted by production cuts in Libya and concerns of a wider Middle East conflict.
The rebound in Israel GDP stalled in Q2 with the economy expanding by just 1.2% at an annualised rate. Despite following an upwardly revised expansion of 17.3% in Q1, Israel’s economy has not fully reversed the contraction seen in 2023 Q4.
S&P downgraded Israel’s rating to A with a negative outlook, citing the prolonged impact of regional tension that could potentially drag out to 2025 with risks of wider regional conflict.
The UAE has expanded its In-Country Value (ICV) programme which seeks to bolster industrial expansion, by redirecting $13 billion to the economy in H1 2024.
This blog post emphasises the critical need for a comprehensive analysis in climate risk management, recognising the value of NGFS and IPCC scenarios while advocating for tailored, nuanced approaches that leverage additional insights and data.
Turkey has received its third credit rating upgrade this year, as Moody’s revised its rating to “B1” from “B3”, following Fitch’s and S&P’s upgrades earlier this year. Moody’s upgrade for Turkey marks its first in over a decade. The two-notch upgrade was driven by the implementation of appropriate macroeconomic stabilization policies. Yesterday, Turkey’s central bank has left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 50%. We expect the central bank to maintain its policy rates at the current level until 2025 Q1.
Saudi Arabia’s GDP fell by 0.4% y/y in Q2, largely due to the continuous decline in oil production. This marks the fourth consecutive quarter of contraction. Despite the weak oil sector, we expect GDP to expand by 1.5% this year, due to increased non-oil activity.
Turkey has received its third credit rating upgrade this year, as Moody’s revised its rating to “B1” from “B3”, following Fitch’s and S&P’s upgrades earlier this year. Moody’s upgrade for Turkey marks its first in over a decade. The two-notch upgrade was driven by the implementation of appropriate macroeconomic stabilization policies. Yesterday, Turkey’s central bank has left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 50%. We expect the central bank to maintain its policy rates at the current level until 2025 Q1.
Our forecasts do not show any significant deindustrialisation over the next decades in Europe—in fact, we find predictions around imminent or longer-term deindustrialisation to be overblown. The term, initially coined to help spur a political response to the energy crisis of 2022, has morphed into a catch-all that tends to confuse the structural and cyclical headwinds Europe has been facing.
Kenya has been facing a tumultuous month from an economic and political perspective, but our baseline scenario assumes that the East African nation is not headed towards a fiscal cliff.
Our blog will allow you to keep abreast of all the latest regional developments and trends as we share with you a selection of our latest economic analysis and forecasts. To provide you with the most insightful and incisive reports we combine our global expertise in forecasting and analysis with the local knowledge of our team of economists.
Our blog will allow you to keep abreast of all the latest regional developments and trends as we share with you a selection of our latest economic analysis and forecasts. To provide you with the most insightful and incisive reports we combine our global expertise in forecasting and analysis with the local knowledge of our team of economists.
Malaria No More (MNM) United Kingdom (UK) commissioned Oxford Economics Africa to assess the future economic impact of malaria on the countries most exposed to the disease, as well as at the Africa and global levels, while also considering the UK’s relationship with the most affected countries and the benefits arising from localised research and development (R&D) and manufacturing.
Our blog will allow you to keep abreast of all the latest regional developments and trends as we share with you a selection of our latest economic analysis and forecasts. To provide you with the most insightful and incisive reports we combine our global expertise in forecasting and analysis with the local knowledge of our team of economists.
We expect employment growth in the eurozone to continue slowing despite the economic
recovery gathering speed. Future employment will be constrained by demographics and by the
unemployment rate falling only slightly, given it is at a historical low and close to its long-term
natural level. This will favour less dormant wage growth than before the pandemic.
Our blog will allow you to keep abreast of all the latest regional developments and trends as we share with you a selection of our latest economic analysis and forecasts. To provide you with the most insightful and incisive reports we combine our global expertise in forecasting and analysis with the local knowledge of our team of economists.
African political economy is consistently evolving both at a national and continental level. Robust data analysis needs to be supplemented with a deep understanding of politics on the continent. Our Africa Insights provide concise views on the most important economic and political developments on the continent, with the aim of allowing for more informed decision-making.
This Research Briefing summarises our four scenarios for the general election that will take place in South Africa on May 29, and compares the macroeconomic forecasts associated with them.
