Sanele Mjikane 
Our blog will allow you to keep abreast of all the latest regional developments and trends as we share with you a selection of our latest economic analysis and forecasts. To provide you with the most insightful and incisive reports we combine our global expertise in forecasting and analysis with the local knowledge of our team of economists.
Malaria No More (MNM) United Kingdom (UK) commissioned Oxford Economics Africa to assess the future economic impact of malaria on the countries most exposed to the disease, as well as at the Africa and global levels, while also considering the UK’s relationship with the most affected countries and the benefits arising from localised research and development (R&D) and manufacturing.
Our blog will allow you to keep abreast of all the latest regional developments and trends as we share with you a selection of our latest economic analysis and forecasts. To provide you with the most insightful and incisive reports we combine our global expertise in forecasting and analysis with the local knowledge of our team of economists.
We expect employment growth in the eurozone to continue slowing despite the economic
recovery gathering speed. Future employment will be constrained by demographics and by the
unemployment rate falling only slightly, given it is at a historical low and close to its long-term
natural level. This will favour less dormant wage growth than before the pandemic.
Our blog will allow you to keep abreast of all the latest regional developments and trends as we share with you a selection of our latest economic analysis and forecasts. To provide you with the most insightful and incisive reports we combine our global expertise in forecasting and analysis with the local knowledge of our team of economists.
African political economy is consistently evolving both at a national and continental level. Robust data analysis needs to be supplemented with a deep understanding of politics on the continent. Our Africa Insights provide concise views on the most important economic and political developments on the continent, with the aim of allowing for more informed decision-making.
This Research Briefing summarises our four scenarios for the general election that will take place in South Africa on May 29, and compares the macroeconomic forecasts associated with them.
African political economy is consistently evolving both at a national and continental level. Robust data analysis needs to be supplemented with a deep understanding of politics on the continent. Our Africa Insights provide concise views on the most important economic and political developments on the continent, with the aim of allowing for more informed decision-making.
This is the last of the four Research Briefings on scenarios for South Africa’s general election on May 29. In this scenario, the centre-right opposition to the ANC, united in a coalition around the DA, secures enough votes to form a majority.
African political economy is consistently evolving both at a national and continental level. Robust data analysis needs to be supplemented with a deep understanding of politics on the continent. Our Africa Insights provide concise views on the most important economic and political developments on the continent, with the aim of allowing for more informed decision-making.
This Research Briefing details the third of our four scenarios for South Africa’s general election on May 29. In this scenario, the African National Congress (ANC), having won only 40% of the vote, decides to make a deal with the party that has been the official opposition for 25 years: the liberal Democratic Alliance (DA).
The Monetary Policy Committee voted to keep Bank Rate at 5.25% at May’s meeting, but it also sent a clear message that a summer rate cut is likely. This could come as soon as June if data on pay and inflation data come in at, or below, expectations.
More frequent adverse supply shocks mean eurozone inflation is likely to be more volatile and possibly higher on average in the future. Food prices are a key channel through which these global shocks will be transmitted, according to our analysis. We provide a quantitative assessment of the impact of a wide range of supply shocks on eurozone inflation.
The Federal Reserve will likely signal next week that its confidence that inflation is on a sustained path to 2% has been diminished and that it is prepared to leave interest rates at current levels until it sees clear signs disinflation is back on track. We pushed the first rate cut in our baseline to September and reduced the number of rate cuts in our forecast for 2024 from three to two.
Our baseline forecast for policy rates is consistent with central bankers continuing to focus almost exclusively on inflation. Their laser-like inflation focus and higher-for-longer bias are understandable after such a large and sustained inflation overshoot. But once inflation is firmly back at target and this bias reverses, it will eventually be a key source of downside risk to our policy rate forecasts.
African political economy is consistently evolving both at a national and continental level. Robust data analysis needs to be supplemented with a deep understanding of politics on the continent. Our Africa Insights provide concise views on the most important economic and political developments on the continent, with the aim of allowing for more informed decision-making.
This briefing sets out the second of our four scenarios for South Africa’s general election: the ANC wins only 40% of the vote and makes a coalition deal with the radical leftists of the EFF.
African political economy is consistently evolving both at a national and continental level. Robust data analysis needs to be supplemented with a deep understanding of politics on the continent. Our Africa Insights provide concise views on the most important economic and political developments on the continent, with the aim of allowing for more informed decision-making.
This Research Briefing sets out the first of four scenarios for South Africa’s general election on May 29. In this scenario, the ANC wins over 46% of the vote share at the national level, and forms a government by working with small, constituency-based parties.
Our sentiment data, developed with Penta, suggests that UK private sector wage growth slowed sharply in March and early-April. If official data mirrors our sentiment indicator, it should keep the Monetary Policy Committee on track to cut interest rates in the summer.
