Research Briefing | May 6, 2024

South Africa: Elections 2024 | ‘ANC & EFF’ election scenario

This briefing sets out the second of our four scenarios for South Africa’s general election: the ANC wins only 40% of the vote and makes a coalition deal with the radical leftists of the EFF.

What you will learn:

  • In exchange for other positions, the EFF backs President Cyril Ramaphosa for another term
  • The EFF leaves most governance to the ANC, but prioritises a few policies that involve job creation through the state
  • The effects on the economy are felt through an adverse market reaction and weaker fiscal metrics
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