Oxford Economics wurde von TikTok beauftragt, den gesamtwirtschaftlichen Beitrag von TikTok Shop in Deutschland seit dem Start im März 2025 zu analysieren.
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Oxford Economics was commissioned by TikTok to assess the economic impact of TikTok Shop in Germany following its launch in March 2025.
The 2026 severely adverse scenario introduces a more structured and transparent design, with a greater reliance on a published macroeconomic model to ensure consistency across key variables such as GDP, unemployment and inflation.
We expect the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies to enter recession in the first half of this year as the US-Israel war with Iran extends into its second month. We’ve updated our forecasts to reflect this and the risk of a prolonged conflict.
The UK’s Plan 2 graduate loan is pushing younger workers into high repayment rates at a time when disposable income is already being squeezed by tax threshold freezes and higher living costs.
EU supply chains remain highly exposed to external risks. In the past six years, the bloc hasn’t materially reduced its exposure to imports from non-politically aligned countries, nor has it cut the average distance its imports travel. Furthermore, its dependence on Chinese imports has broadened across more sectors.
In response to the US-Iran war, we’ve downgraded our forecast for GCC real GDP growth by 1.8ppts to 2.6% for 2026 due to lower oil production exports, tourism, and domestic demand.
Artificial intelligence is rapidly spreading across Europe’s business landscape. In just two years, the proportion of firms deploying AI has risen from 8% to 20%, and the number using multiple AI technologies has also jumped
While Ethiopia already had a large illicit cigarette market prior to 2020, recent changes to the excise regime and the implementation of higher excise taxes have affected the country’s legal and illicit market dynamics.
Africa’s copper production is concentrated in the Central African Copperbelt, shared between the DRC and Zambia, and is the world’s second-most-productive copper region. After a decadeslong production slump, the DRC has become the second-largest copper producer globally, supported by Chinese investment. Although copper production in Zambia has recovered more modestly, it remains below its past peaks. Copper prices have recently soared to all-time highs, with Zambia and the DRC reaping the greatest benefit.
Polish cities have been among the fastest-growing in Europe over the past 25 years, and we expect Warsaw—along with Kraków, Wrocław, and Gdańsk—to remain among the continent’s strongest performers in the decade ahead. Manufacturing has built the foundation of strong growth since the turn of the century, but ICT, finance, and business services are becoming increasingly important for driving productivity gains and propelling Poland’s major city economies to the top of Europe’s leaderboard.
Oxford Economics Africa conducted a socioeconomic impact assessment of DP World Dakar covering 2022–2024. We assessed DP World’s operations in Senegal, quantifying its economic footprint, the activity supported through trade facilitation and evaluating social and environmental outcomes, while mapping how value is created for key stakeholders: employees, customers, suppliers, partners, and communities.
Despite the new government’s 2026 budget being slightly more timid than anticipated, we don’t plan major changes to our outlook. However, this doesn’t mean the government will show fiscal restraint in the coming years. A smaller deficit will slow but not halt the rise in bond yields in 2026, as markets price in higher current spending-driven borrowing and relaxed fiscal rules.
AI-related investment is unlikely to be a near-term driver of GDP growth in the EU, unlike the US where it contributes significantly. Despite rapid expansion, the AI sector in the EU is still too small and heavily reliant on imports.
Gulf cities are betting big on AI. With billions of dollars in planned investment and megawatts of capacity in the pipeline, cities like Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and Dubai are attempting to position themselves as hubs for AI adoption, infrastructure, and development.
The ICT sector has been a key engine of economic growth for European cities over the last 25 years.
Sino-African relations have improved following Trump’s protectionist tilt. Next year, those relations will start showing strain as African industrialisation efforts run up against China’s desire to find alternative export markets.
Ugandans head to the polls on Thursday, January 15, for presidential and legislative elections.
We think the Czech 10-year bond yield is on track to breach 5% in the coming months, as the markets continue to price in the fiscally profligate programme of the new government.
Oxford Economics’ recent analysis for Sizewell C demonstrates the substantial economic boost that the Nationally Significant Infrastructure Project will make to the UK economy.
