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Sanele Mjikane

The week before the publication of this Political Focus, Gabon underwent tremendous political change: in a coup d’état on August 30, soldiers overthrew President Ali Bongo after he had claimed an obviously fraudulent win in the presidential election held four days before. Mr Bongo had been in power since 2009. Before him, his father, Omar Bongo, ruled from 1967 to 2009 at the head of a hugely corrupt government. The coup leader and now interim president, General Brice Oligui Nguema, hinted that the coup had been planned before the election. The end of the Bongo era has been greeted with joy and optimism in Gabon and abroad.

Most measures of inflation expectations eased in recent months, with the notable exceptions not as bad as they look. This improvement alleviates concerns about possible second-round effects or an unanchoring of inflation expectations, making it easier for the European Central Bank to bring actual inflation back to its 2% target. This will also facilitate a gradual return from the ECB to a more traditional reaction function after a period where taming high inflation was the sole focus.

Cruise - tourism economics

Luxury cruise capacity is set to nearly double by 2028, with Luxury Segment capacity on track to expand 87% compared to 2019 fuelled in part by new entrants.

South Africa’s preparations for the 15th Brics Summit in August, which the country is hosting, have been overshadowed by the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the warrant of arrest it issued for one of the expected attendees, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, on charges of war crimes. Domestic and foreign critics have accused Pretoria of being much too cosy with Moscow, notwithstanding official assurances that South Africa is neutral in the Russia/Ukraine conflict, and Washington’s ambassador to the country caused a diplomatic storm in May when he claimed that South Africa had supplied Russia with weapons. Denials have since given way to a diplomatic charm offensive with South African officials trying to temper the concerns of the country’s Western partners, who account for much of its trade, and its Brics partners, who are poised to welcome new members.

The furnished housing market has long been perceived as an insignificant market segment. Our research shows that in 2022 about 14% of renters in Germany lived in furnished apartments. In addition, the market segment is growing. The share of listings for furnished apartments as a share of all rental apartment listings has risen by 45% between January 2013 and January 2022.

We estimate that the ECB’s job of taming elevated inflation will feature an unfavourable trade-off due to the uneven sectoral impact of monetary tightening. We find that the strongest impact of the ECB rate hikes is only partially concentrated in the sectors driving underlying inflation, while hitting those sectors lagging in the current cycle.

The growing impact of climate change means that mitigation policy is becoming more prominent across the Nordic region. The transition policies that governments enact will have significant economic consequences, and their impact will be felt unevenly across regions. To help organisations understand the implications of different policies, we have developed a range of scenarios which plot potential pathways towards net zero.

Eurozone central banks became unprofitable last year, and near-term operational losses are likely to persist as banks exit the accommodative policies of the past decade. But while cash-strapped finance ministries may find it a headache, we don’t expect it to hurt the ECB’s ability to do its job.

The Czech National Bank again kept the policy rate unchanged at 7% for a sixth consecutive time at the meeting today. This was expected by us as well as the markets.

This report examines the size of the illicit tobacco market in Türkiye as well as and the impact it has on government tax revenue. Commissioned by Philip Morris International, this report particularly highlights the rising prevalence of cut tobacco, whose consumption almost doubled between 2019 and 2021. Total tax loss due to illicit consumption of tobacco products reached TL 18,327mn in 2021, doubling from TL 9,744mn in 2019. Illicit cut tobacco accounted for 86.4-95.9% of annual tax loss during this period.

Investment incentives are set to fall in the UK
• In April 2023, the Corporation Tax rate is set to increase from 19% to 25% at the same time as the end of the super-deduction regime.

A string of positive high-frequency data and an upside surprise in the flash GDP estimate for Q4 2022 have prompted us to raise our eurozone growth forecast. Economic growth has managed to stay above expectations, and with the easing in gas and oil prices, the most severe downside risk has been removed. That said, our baseline still features a contraction in Q1, and the recovery in H2 could underwhelm if the impact of monetary tightening turns out stronger.

The powerful earthquakes that hit Turkey and Syria on February 6 have caused a human tragedy; at the time of writing, over 11000 people have been confirmed dead and the toll is likely to rise. The human cost will be accompanied by vast economic damage, the scale of which will take time to become clear.

This study examines some of the more recent job creation initiatives across the African continent, with the aim of identifying the factors that have contributed to the success of these initiatives. This, in turn, provides insights that can be considered when formulating future policies aimed at stimulating employment.

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