Sanele Mjikane 
We estimate that the ECB’s job of taming elevated inflation will feature an unfavourable trade-off due to the uneven sectoral impact of monetary tightening. We find that the strongest impact of the ECB rate hikes is only partially concentrated in the sectors driving underlying inflation, while hitting those sectors lagging in the current cycle.
The growing impact of climate change means that mitigation policy is becoming more prominent across the Nordic region. The transition policies that governments enact will have significant economic consequences, and their impact will be felt unevenly across regions. To help organisations understand the implications of different policies, we have developed a range of scenarios which plot potential pathways towards net zero.
Eurozone central banks became unprofitable last year, and near-term operational losses are likely to persist as banks exit the accommodative policies of the past decade. But while cash-strapped finance ministries may find it a headache, we don’t expect it to hurt the ECB’s ability to do its job.
The Czech National Bank again kept the policy rate unchanged at 7% for a sixth consecutive time at the meeting today. This was expected by us as well as the markets.
This report examines the size of the illicit tobacco market in Türkiye as well as and the impact it has on government tax revenue. Commissioned by Philip Morris International, this report particularly highlights the rising prevalence of cut tobacco, whose consumption almost doubled between 2019 and 2021. Total tax loss due to illicit consumption of tobacco products reached TL 18,327mn in 2021, doubling from TL 9,744mn in 2019. Illicit cut tobacco accounted for 86.4-95.9% of annual tax loss during this period.
Investment incentives are set to fall in the UK
• In April 2023, the Corporation Tax rate is set to increase from 19% to 25% at the same time as the end of the super-deduction regime.
A string of positive high-frequency data and an upside surprise in the flash GDP estimate for Q4 2022 have prompted us to raise our eurozone growth forecast. Economic growth has managed to stay above expectations, and with the easing in gas and oil prices, the most severe downside risk has been removed. That said, our baseline still features a contraction in Q1, and the recovery in H2 could underwhelm if the impact of monetary tightening turns out stronger.
The powerful earthquakes that hit Turkey and Syria on February 6 have caused a human tragedy; at the time of writing, over 11000 people have been confirmed dead and the toll is likely to rise. The human cost will be accompanied by vast economic damage, the scale of which will take time to become clear.
This study examines some of the more recent job creation initiatives across the African continent, with the aim of identifying the factors that have contributed to the success of these initiatives. This, in turn, provides insights that can be considered when formulating future policies aimed at stimulating employment.
