Increased spending to meet the needs of an ageing population jeopardises the sustainability of Europe’s public pension systems, based on current legislated measures.
Sanele Mjikane
OPEC+ has delayed a planned supply increase until January due to concerns over weak demand showing the group continues to focus on supporting oil prices and Brent now stands around $75pb.
Following the outcome of the US elections, we have adopted our ‘limited Trump’ scenario as our new baseline forecast. Our new baseline assumes a Republican-led Congress extends the personal tax cuts under the 2017 tax law and enacts higher spending levels.
Following Israel’s strike on Iran in response to the 1st October missile attacks, Brent crude fell sharply, dropping some $4pb. This suggests that markets think the risk of further escalation is contained.
The IMF has lowered its 2024 GDP growth forecasts for Saudi Arabia to 1.5% from 1.7% in its July estimate, the largest cut in the region.
We expect growth across the Nordic economies to pick up in the near term, with quarterly growth in Sweden and Norway among the highest across advanced economies by late next year, driven by cyclical tailwinds and policy easing
Hopes of a consumer spending recovery becoming the driving engine of eurozone growth in 2024 have not materialised. Private consumption growth is still unspectacular, mirroring the tepid momentum of the wider economy. Consumption growth will remain unspectacular at 0.8% this year and 1.5% in 2025.
The Burden of Unpredictable Excise Taxes & High Inflation on Beer Producers & Consumers in South Africa
OPEC announced further cuts to its global oil demand growth forecast, reducing 2024’s estimate to 1.9 million bpd and 2025’s to 1.6 million bpd citing slower growth in China and broader economic challenges.
Economic impact study quantifying Shell’s economic footprint in the Netherlands. The study also considers Shells impact on Dutch society, impacts of its R&D activities, and its contribution to energy security.
Our sentiment data, developed with Penta, suggests that labour market conditions have loosened and pay growth has slowed abruptly through the summer. If this trend is reflected in official data, it could motivate some Monetary Policy Committee members to join Swati Dhingra in voting for rate cuts at successive meetings.
Turkey’s annual inflation continued to ease for the fourth consecutive month during September, recording 49.4% down from 52% in August. We expect the underlying pace of inflation will soften further over the rest of this year and think inflation will ease to 20.4% by end-2025
This report quantifies the economic impact that bp supported in both the UK national and regional economies in 2023.
Israel’s ground invasion into south Lebanon and its assassination of prominent Hezbollah leaders followed by Iran’s missile attack on Israel marks a significant escalation in the conflict. Oil prices climbed above $75 pb in the initial aftermath and how Israel decides to respond will be critical for determining the economic and financial ramifications.
Amid heightened regional tensions, Lebanon’s inflation rate eased marginally to 35% in August – the lowest reading in over four years. The deceleration was due to the fall in food and transportation prices which offset the acceleration in prices of housing and recreation. We project annual inflation to average 46% in 2024, although risks are skewed to the upside in light of the escalated conflict with Israel.
We think generative artificial intelligence could add as many as 1.2 million jobs to the eurozone labour market by 2040. But the impact will be highly uneven across roles and sectors, making government action and structural reforms keys to mitigating the downside risks.
“What CTOs Think: Navigating the Path to the AI Enterprise” is a report that explores how CTOs are approaching this current era of digitalization and offers recommendations for a successful transformation to an AI-powered enterprise. The survey, conducted in collaboration with Oxford Economics, covers 2,000 C-suite leaders, including 509 CTOs, across nine countries and 18 sectors, including Aerospace, Automotive, Energy, Life Sciences, and Technology.
We expect stronger activity in the eurozone in 2025, but growth will remain lacklustre as the consumer recovery lacks momentum. Monetary policy will become less restrictive, but fiscal policy will continue to drag on growth. External demand is set to improve, but prospects are prone to risks from rising protectionism. We anticipate GDP growth of 1.3% in 2025, slightly below consensus.
Lacklustre eurozone growth momentum looks unlikely to meaningfully pick up before the end of the year. Our GDP nowcasting models for Q3, which includes a one-off boost from the Paris Olympics, point to modest growth at 0.3% q/q – in line with our baseline
In August, Israel’s inflation rose to 3.6%, while Saudi Arabia’s edged up to 1.6%. Despite this, Saudi Arabia’s economic outlook is positive, with S&P Global noting progress under Vision 2030 and expecting 5% growth in non-oil sectors this year. Economic reforms aim to balance inflationary pressures.
