Video|24 October 2024

MENA | Saudi GDP Downgrade, UAE Growth Upgraded – What’s Next for the Gulf?

The IMF has lowered its 2024 GDP growth forecasts for Saudi Arabia to 1.5% from 1.7% in its July estimate, the largest cut in the region. We expect growth to be marginally weaker as prolonged oil cuts continue to drag on the non-oil economy. Meanwhile, the fund has raised its GDP growth forecasts for the UAE to 4.0% in 2024 and 5.1% in 2025. We are less optimistic and expect GDP to expand by 3.7% this year and 5.0% next year.

Inflation in Kuwait fell to 2.8% in September from 2.9% in August. Prices rose moderately across all categories except for transportation which dropped by 1.6% y/y. In Qatar, CPI rose to 1.2% from 0.8% in August, largely due to the rise in recreation and hospitality prices, offsetting the decline in housing, food and health prices.

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