Video|17 October 2024

MENA | Is OPEC’s Oil Demand Forecast Too High?

Scott Livermore

Chief Economist & Managing Director

OPEC announced further cuts to its global oil demand growth forecast, reducing 2024’s estimate to 1.9 million bpd and 2025’s to 1.6 million bpd citing slower growth in China and broader economic challenges. This remains above IEA projections for oil demand growth of 900,000 b/d in 2024 and around 1 m b/d in 2025. We too anticipate that OPEC’s latest forecast is still optimistic and see oil prices remaining under pressure, ending the year near $70 per barrel assuming Middle East tensions don’t ratchet up further.

Saudi Arabia’s inflation rate rose to 1.7% in September, primarily driven by higher housing and utility costs, reflecting strong real estate demand and rising rental prices. In contrast, Jordan’s inflation eased to 1%, as falling food and clothing prices offset increases in personal items. We forecast both Saudi Arabia and Jordan’s inflation to average 1.7% in 2024.

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