Video | 02 Oct 2024

MENA – Middle East Tensions Rising: How Will It Impact the Global Economy?

Scott Livermore

Chief Economist, Oxford Economics Middle East, and Managing Director


Israel’s ground invasion into south Lebanon and its assassination of prominent Hezbollah leaders followed by Iran’s missile attack on Israel marks a significant escalation in the conflict. Oil prices climbed above $75 pb in the initial aftermath and how Israel decides to respond will be critical for determining the economic and financial ramifications.

The odds of a regional war as mapped out in Oxford Economics’ Global Scenarios Service have now heightened. Should this scenario materialise, we anticipate a 0.4ppt hit to global GDP growth in 2025 as oil prices spike to $130 due to disrupted supply.

The GCC could suffer a hit to GDP of 1.5% this year and 0.6% next compared to our baseline amid the energy market disruption and possible disruption in sectors such as travel and tourism. But those maintaining production amid higher oil prices may be able to cushion the impact on their economies.


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Get in touch

Matthew Pritchard

Head of Business Development, Middle East

+971 50 867 3560

Matthew Pritchard

Head of Business Development, Middle East

Dubai, United Arab Emirates

Matthew heads-up the subscriptions sales team in the Middle East and is responsible for strategic and commercial activities across the region. He joined the team in 2021 and is based in our Dubai office. Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Matthew was a Sales Director at Fitch Solutions covering business development across the Middle East having moved to Dubai from London to help set-up their UAE office in 2015. Matthew holds a Master’s degree in Management (with a speciality in International Business) and a Batchelor’s degree in Philosophy, both from the University of Sheffield.

Scott Livermore

Chief Economist, Oxford Economics Middle East, and Managing Director

+971 504 039 455

Scott Livermore

Chief Economist, Oxford Economics Middle East, and Managing Director

London, United Kingdom

Scott Livermore is the Chief Economist of Oxford Economics Middle East and based in Oxford’s Dubai office. He is also Managing Director of Consultancy in the Middle East and Asia, as well as a member of Oxford Economics’ Senior Management Team. Scott leads many of the major projects in the GCC and Asia which have recently included capacity building, macroeconomic modelling, and policy impact assessment engagements for government institutions in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Oman, and IFRS 9 and Stress Testing engagements in Singapore, Thailand, and Hong Kong.

After completing a degree in Philosophy, Politics and Economics at St. Edmund Hall, Oxford University, and an MSc in Economics at University College London, Scott joined Oxford Economic Forecasting in 1997. During his initial five years at OEF, he worked as a country analyst for a number of European countries and participated in numerous consultancy projects for a variety of international organisations, governments and multinational companies using both Oxford Economics’ Global Economic Model and bespoke economic models.

Scott rejoined Oxford Economics in 2005 as a senior economist after spending two years at the Ministry of Finance in the Slovak Republic assisting with the government’s medium-term macroeconomic framework and developing the analytical capacity of the ministry to prepare such forecasts. He has also held the positions of Managing Director of Macro and Industry Services, Managing Director of Macro Consulting, and COO of Oxford Economics USA.

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