Video|7 November 2024

MENA | Can OPEC+ Stabilize Oil Prices While Turkey Delays Rate Cuts?

Scott Livermore

Chief Economist & Managing Director

OPEC+ has delayed a planned supply increase until January due to concerns over weak demand showing the group continues to focus on supporting oil prices and Brent now stands around $75pb. That said, the chances of the demand outlook improving materially in the near-term are slim, which will make it hard for OPEC+ to boost production. Indeed, we now expect production cuts to be extended until Q2 2025, while we forecast oil prices to average $73 per barrel in 2025.

Turkish inflation fell to 48.6% in October from 49.4% in September. Prices rose at a slightly slower pace m/m than in September, but base effects drove much of the decline in the annual reading. Inflation is not falling as fast as the Central Bank is expecting supporting our view that interest rates will not be cut until Q1 2025.

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