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We run a worldwide programme of insightful conferences, roundtables, webinars and podcasts presented by our economic experts.

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Showing 1-11 of 11
Webinar
Post-correction real estate opportunities on the horizon?

with Abigail Rosenbaum | Online | April 17, 2024

Solid US GDP growth and lower inflation in 2024 will lead the Fed to begin cutting rates mid-year. Rate cuts should stabilize investor confidence and bring the commercial real estate (CRE) pricing correction to an end this year. Once a recovery is underway in 2025, opportunities will start to emerge. In this real estate webinar, using our Relative Return Index (RRI), we highlight risk-adjusted investment opportunities for Global CRE in 2024 and beyond.

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Webinar
Asset allocation perspectives in a stronger for longer environment

with Daniel von Ahlen | Online | March 28, 2024

Our cross-asset framework points to a constructive stance on the global cycle and we think risk assets will outperform over the next 6-12m even if rich valuations suggest the upside will likely be limited. We suspect that the risk that inflation will stabilise above the Fed's target in H2 is still under priced by bond markets and remain cautious on duration. We discuss why equities will continue to edge higher but the pace of returns is likely to slow, and we see greater return potential in other asset classes such as credit.

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Webinar
US Key Themes for 2024

with Innes McFee and Michael Pearce | Online | December 4, 2023

Our final US webinar of the year looks at what we can expect to see in 2024. We expect a material slowdown in the US economy in the next couple of quarters to give way to a modest acceleration in GDP growth in H2. Inflation will continue to fall but at a much more gradual pace than in 2023 driven by a gradual loosening of labor market conditions, prompting the Fed to start easing policy towards the end of the year. Beyond these headlines three themes will be key to shaping the economy in 2024: fiscal policy as a key driver of the outlook; credit and political uncertainty; and the economy will remain highly desynchronized.

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Webinar
US Macro Outlook: Growth set to falter?

with Michael Pearce and Nancy Vanden Houten | Online | October 31, 2023

The economy has remained resilient through the end of the third quarter, but we expect a combination of high interest rates, tighter lending conditions and more restrictive fiscal policy will push the economy into a sharp slowdown over the coming quarters. A prolonged period of below-trend growth will help to lower inflation back closer to the Fed’s 2% target. But with the Fed approaching its inflation target from above, officials are likely to take an extremely cautious approach to lowering interest rates next year and beyond.

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Webinar
Global soft patch to push central banks towards policy pivot

with Ben May | Online | September 22, 2023

Economic resilience has been the key theme for the first half of 2023, but we have repeatedly argued that this unexpected strength mainly reflects spending borrowed from the future. Recently, it has become increasingly clear that the transition to weaker growth has begun. We expect a combination of a steady easing in headline and core inflation over the coming months and recessions or lacklustre growth to prompt the Fed and the European Central Bank to start cutting rates in April or May next year. The subsequent speed of policy loosening will be slow, in line with past cycles where cuts begun whilst core inflation was above target.

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Webinar
EM policy pivots ahead of AEs as investment takes a hit

with Gabriel Sterne and Lucila Bonilla | Online | August 24, 2023

Real activity growth in emerging markets (EMs) ex-China has been more resilient than we expected, despite very tight monetary policy. So far this year, we’ve increased our GDP forecasts in 15 large EMs. However, our Q2 nowcasts are indicating slowing momentum, particularly though investment weakness. We pencil a greater drag from past policy tightening on activity in 2024 that will contribute to easing core inflation momentum. This will allow most EMs to cut ahead of the Fed, with risks tilted to a faster normalisation.

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Webinar
US outlook: See no recession, hear no recession?

with Ryan Sweet and Oren Klachkin | Online | July 11, 2023

The economy stands on solid ground mid-way through 2023 as consumer spending remains resilient and businesses continue to hire. However, we see storm clouds on the horizon and anticipate a mild recession as the Fed remains reluctant to take its foot off the brake while credit conditions tighten further. Tune in to our quarterly outlook webinar to find out how bad the damage will be.

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Webinar
Latin America’s exposure to an asset crash scenario

with Marcos Casarin and Joan Domene | Online | March 30, 2023

The failure of regional banks in the US did not change our baseline forecast for asset prices, central bank policy or the real economy in Latin America. But it was a reminder that the Fed could cause accidents along the way in its fight against inflation and Latin America could become a casualty in the process. Marcos Casarin and Joan Domene will provide an update on the outlook and risks for the region with a focus on its two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico.

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Webinar
US: 2023 Key Themes – Will the landing be hard or soft?

with Ryan Sweet and Oren Klachkin | Online | January 11, 2023

The US economy will need a lot of luck to avoid a mild recession this year because the headwinds are about to intensify. Historically, in bouts of high inflation and a weakening economy, the Fed has been slow to ease monetary policy. Therefore, we don’t anticipate the Fed cutting interest rates anytime soon and though there is a path to a soft landing, it’s narrow.

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Webinar
Meeting the challenges of new US regulation linked to climate change

with Jake Kuyer, Felicity Hannon, Neil Walker and Alex Mackle | Online | January 10, 2023

The regulatory environment surrounding climate change is shifting rapidly, with the SEC proposing new climate related disclosure requirements and the Fed announcing the introduction of climate stress testing. Join our panel of experts, as they discuss the implications of the new regulatory environment and how best to meet the challenges and opportunities these developments will create.

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