Disinflation will trigger some EMs to pivot ahead of the Fed
We examined which EM central banks will win the race to pivot, focusing on differences the extent to which core and services sector inflation generate persistence. Our historical analysis suggest EMs are able to get ahead of Fed pivots.

Gabriel Sterne
Head of Global Emerging Markets

Private: Gabriel Sterne
Head of Global Emerging Markets
London, United Kingdom
Gabriel delivers macro-economic products tailored for corporates and financial markets, as head of a team that integrates EM macro and strategy views. In recent years he has published wide-ranging research including on stagflation risks, monetary policy credibility, global savings, demographics, Covid scarring, risks and resilience in emerging markets, and sovereign crisis resolution. He joined from investment banking boutique Exotix in May 2014, following 20 years of public sector experience, including at the Bank of England and International Monetary Fund.

Lucila Bonilla
Global EM Economist
+44 (0) 203 910 8144

Lucila Bonilla
Global EM Economist
London, United Kingdom
Lucila holds a BA in Economics and graduated recently with a master’s degree in Economics of Public Policy at the Barcelona School of Economics. Her research focuses on emerging markets macro. She joined Oxford Economics recently after working at one of LatAm’s top economic think-tanks and several international organisations (ECLAC, UNDP, OECD).
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