EM policy pivots ahead of AEs as investment takes a hit

Date: Thursday 24 August 2023

Real activity growth in emerging markets (EMs) ex-China has been more resilient than we expected, despite very tight monetary policy. So far this year, we’ve increased our GDP forecasts in 15 large EMs. However, our Q2 nowcasts are indicating slowing momentum, particularly though investment weakness. We pencil a greater drag from past policy tightening on activity in 2024 that will contribute to easing core inflation momentum. This will allow most EMs to cut ahead of the Fed, with risks tilted to a faster normalisation.

Gabriel Sterne

Head of Global Emerging Markets

Private: Gabriel Sterne

Head of Global Emerging Markets

London, United Kingdom

Gabriel delivers macro-economic products tailored for corporates and financial markets, as head of a team that integrates EM macro and strategy views.  In recent years he has published wide-ranging research including on stagflation risks, monetary policy credibility, global savings, demographics, Covid scarring, risks and resilience in emerging markets, and sovereign crisis resolution. He joined from investment banking boutique Exotix in May 2014, following 20 years of public sector experience, including at the Bank of England and International Monetary Fund.

Lucila Bonilla

Global EM Economist

+44 (0) 203 910 8144

Lucila Bonilla

Global EM Economist

London, United Kingdom

Lucila holds a BA in Economics and graduated recently with a master’s degree in Economics of Public Policy at the Barcelona School of Economics. Her research focuses on emerging markets macro. She joined Oxford Economics recently after working at one of LatAm’s top economic think-tanks and several international organisations (ECLAC, UNDP, OECD).

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