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US: 2023 Key Themes – Will the landing be hard or soft?

The US economy will need a lot of luck to avoid a mild recession this year because the headwinds are about to intensify. Historically, in bouts of high inflation and a weakening economy, the Fed has been slow to ease monetary policy. Therefore, we don’t anticipate the Fed cutting interest rates anytime soon and though there is a path to a soft landing, it’s narrow.

Ryan Sweet

Chief US Economist

+1 (646) 668 5790

Ryan Sweet

Chief US Economist

New York, United States

Ryan Sweet is the Chief US Economist at Oxford Economics. He is responsible for forecasting and assessing the US macroeconomic outlook and how it will influence monetary policy and financial markets. Ryan is among the most accurate high-frequency forecasters of the U.S. economy, according to MarketWatch and Bloomberg LP.

Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Ryan led real-time economics at Moody’s Analytics and was a member of the U.S. macroeconomics team. He was also head of the firm’s monetary policy research, following actions by the Federal Reserve and examining its potential impact on the U.S. economy.

Ryan is an adjunct professor in the Economics and Finance Department at West Chester University of Pennsylvania. He received a master’s degree in finance from John’s Hopkins University, a master’s degree in economics from the University of Delaware, and a bachelor’s degree in economics from Washington College.

Oren Klachkin

Lead US Economist

+1 646 503 3058

Oren Klachkin

Lead US Economist

New York, United States

Oren Klachkin is a Lead Economist at Oxford Economics. He specializes in providing analysis on issues affecting the US economy at the industry and regional levels.

Oren’s past work experience includes working as a Global Economist at Citi, as an Economist at IHS Global Insight where he covered the MENA economies and as a Research Associate at ConvergEx Group (now Cowen Group) where he analyzed capital markets. He holds a MA in International Economics and Finance from Brandeis University and a Dual BA in Economics and International Relations from Boston University.

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